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When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.
First things first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas line are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favourable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
These lineups are made with 50/50 and heads-up games in mind.
Toronto Blue Jays (Buehrle) at Cleveland Indians (Kluber)
Mark Buehrle has pitched extremely well so far this year but eventually the magic has to run out. I don’t play the “he’s due” game, but I do think that Buehrle is going to hit a major regression sooner rather than later. I’d rather risk him having a good outing and not draft him than have him on my team and get hammered. I would avoid most hitters against Kluber, as well.
Munenori Kawasaki (2B) – $3546
The Indians absolutely hammered Buehrle in his only start against them last year so I will be tempted with some of their hitters in this game, and might even stack them in a couple of GPPs. I do like Kluber as well but I think I’d rather avoid starting him against the Jays.
Carlos Santana (3B) – $4856
Yan Gomes (C) – $5579
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