When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.
First thing’s first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas lines are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favorable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
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These lineups are made with double-ups in mind.
Chicago White Sox (Quintana) at Baltimore Orioles (Gonzalez)
Last night should make DFSers nervous about starting lefties against this Baltimore lineup. I’ll pass on Quintana. They are facing a pitcher who is giving up a ton of fly balls and that’s good news for the big home run bats for Chicago. The strikeouts might be concerning, but it’s probably a good day to take Adam Dunn.
Jose Abreu (OF) – $8021
Adam Dunn (DH) – $5258
JJ Hardy continues to be too good of a value to pass up. I get that he finally just hit his first home run of the season, but this is a perennial 20 home run hitter. I’ll probably stay away from their big bats (much like last night) but Hardy’s price is very good and Steve Pearce continues to be a decent value against lefties as well.
Steve Pearce (1B) – $5110
JJ Hardy (SS) – $3521
