Things are starting to take shape. To become clearer.
Better teams are winning – favorites were an incredible 12-2-1 overall and 9-6 against the spread – and we finally saw some separation amongst division teams. Throughout the league, only the NFC East and NFC North feature two teams tied for first place.
More impressive than favorites winning is the success of the ‘obvious’ pick, something we generally use as an indicator for a potential trap. The Colts, Broncos, Lions, Patriots, Packers, Cardinals, Chargers, and 49ers all entered Week 6 as teams largely considered ‘safe’. Six of the eight teams covered. It is worth noting, however, that the Broncos and Cardinals each covered their spreads via a last-minute interception for a touchdown. Of course, this is part of the game, but 6-2 looks a lot different than 4-4, and the latter was two plays away from happening.
This outburst by ‘better teams’ does little to affect the overall view of the season, let alone any given week. We can now stop toying around with whether or not the Cowboys are any good – they are – but that truly means little when assessing their chances against the Giants this week. Other teams, like the Browns with their blowout of the Steelers, opened people’s eyes, but it is still far too early in the season to anoint Cleveland this year’s ‘Big Sleeper.’ If they lose in Jacksonville, are they suddenly terrible again?
Some trends, as expected, finally began to return to their norm – the Raiders became this year’s first touchdown underdog at home to beat the spread, and the Jets nearly did the same against Denver – while others continued in their insanely one-sided direction – favorites winning on Thursday Night Football. Where the redirection occurred for some patterns, we still patiently await the next and try to catch it before it happens.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team and an asterisk denotes one of the week’s most confident picks.
*Confidence Picks: 3-4 (Season: 18-16)
All Picks Against Spread: 8-7 (Season: 46-44-1)
