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NFL Week 7 Picks

Mario Mergola battles the spread as he breaks down his pick for every Week 7 game in the NFL.

Tom Brady

Miami Dolphins (+3.5)* at Chicago Bears

Every year, there are those teams that play, but lose, close games. These teams hardly garner favor in the eyes of analysts and fans, not only because they come away empty-handed, but because they are nearly impossible to figure out. Sunday’s matchup between the Bears and Dolphins contains two of this year’s enigmatic teams.

Miami has beat the spread both times they were underdogs this season, but only covered once as a favorite. Chicago has only been the favorite once, and lost outright to the Bills. As underdogs, the Bears are 2-1 against the spread while the Dolphins, as favorites, are 1-2 against the spread. What does this mean?

Neither team has met expectations when asked to do so, and they perform better when the level of competition is higher. This is evident by the Dolphins beating the spread – and almost winning the game – against the Packers last week.

In fact, if Aaron Rodgers failed to lead the Packers to a last second comeback, the Dolphins suddenly look a lot better. While Jay Cutler is no slouch under center, Miami just went toe-to-toe with the league’s second highest rated passer.

The Dolphins win by a field goal on the road and beat the spread.

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