Chicago Bears at New York Jets (-2.5)*
Something must be wrong.
The nation watched the Bears knock off San Francisco on Sunday Night Football hours after the Jets blew an 18-point lead to the Packers. The struggles in the Jets’ secondary have been highlighted for more weeks than Brandon Marshall has touchdown catches. New York’s only victory came against the same Raiders team that lost by 16 to the Texans, while the Bears only loss was an overtime field goal to the AFC East leading Buffalo Bills.
Nothing about the first two weeks of the season should equate to the New York Jets giving points to the Chicago Bears.
When it comes to picking football games against the spread, part of the job is analyzing the two teams – noting recent trends and highlighting particular strengths and weaknesses. When there is no conventional wisdom to support the line, we must turn to the numbers themselves. Doing so, we identify the traps.
The Jets giving two-and-a-half points to the Bears is a trap.
The Bears are the easiest team to pick this week and, therefore, are the one to avoid. Naturally, the other side of the coin depicts the Jets, making New York the team to back. Keep in mind, Chicago’s defense is much worse than their ancestors’, while the Jets thrive at stopping the run. Jay Cutler and the Bears still commit too many turnovers, and New York will capitalize on Monday Night.
The Jets win by a field goal and cover.
