Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5)* at Atlanta Falcons
The Opening Night of week 3 action features two teams with incredibly favorable trends for opposite reasons. Atlanta’s success in the Georgia Dome has been well documented (25-9 in their last 34 regular season home games), and they stand in a position to rebound after a tough loss in Cincinnati.
The Buccaneers, however, are prime for the upset with each item of the checklist in their favor: division team, on the road, getting nearly a touchdown spread, on a nationally televised game, and lost the previous two games by a combined eight points. Each piece of the puzzle lines up nicely for the Buccaneers.
The result? A split.
Both trends are indicative of their respective roles in the game. The underdog Buccaneers beat the spread (all the aforementioned factors make this the confidence pick), but the Falcons, at home and with playoff aspirations, prevail by a field goal.