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Fantasy Football Week 3 Worksheet

Rich Hribar breaks down every game in the NFL to find the best fantasy football matchups.

Geno Smith

Through two weeks, the NFL season is just as unpredictable as ever. The Bills are 2-0, while the Saints are winless. Darren Sproles is the second highest scoring fantasy back while Jamaal Charles owners are already flocking to daily sites in attempts to salvage their sanity. Two weeks doesn’t make a season, so let’s run through the week 3 slate bullet point style.

 

Buccaneers @ Falcons
6 Spread -6
19 Team O/U 25.5
53.5 Plays/Gm 67.0
64.0 Plays/Gm All. 69.5
43.9% Rush % 32.8%
56.1% Pass % 67.2%
48.4% Opp. Rush % 52.5%
51.6% Opp Pass % 47.5%

 

  • Steven Jackson hasn’t hit 90 rushing yards in 17 consecutive games played.
  • Atlanta has given up over 100 team rushing yards in 15 straight games and have allowed 88.3 PPR points to running backs so far through two weeks.
  • Atlanta has already allowed 15 receptions to running backs and five touchdowns.
  • Vincent Jackson totaled a staggering 20 receptions for 303 yards on 32 targets versus the Falcons in 2013.
  • Julio Jones has at least six receptions and 75 receiving yards in seven straight games played.
  • Roddy White has five or more receptions in seven straight games played.
  • With Julio out, Harry Douglas caught 13 of 16 targets for 283 yards and his only two touchdowns of the season versus Tampa Bay in 2013.
  • The Falcons are the only team in the NFL yet to record a sack.

 

Trust: Julio Jones, Vincent Jackson

Bust: Steven Jackson, Mike Evans, Levine Toilolo

Reasonable Return: Bobby Rainey,  Harry Douglas, Matt Ryan, Josh McCown

 

Chargers @ Bills
2.5 Spread -2.5
21 Team O/U 23
67.5 Plays/Gm 57.5
52.5 Plays/Gm All. 71.5
45.2% Rush % 57.4%
54.8% Pass % 42.6%
37.1% Opp. Rush % 27.3%
62.9% Opp Pass % 72.7%

 

  • Donald Brown led all running backs with at least 100 touches in rushing points per attempt (.88), points per touch (.95) and touchdown per touch percentage (6.2 percent) in 2013.
  • Philip Rivers has completed 60 percent or more of his passes in 16 of his past 18 games, tied with Peyton Manning for the most since the start of last season.
  • Keenan Allen averages only 3.8 receptions on 6.3 targets for 49.2 yards over his past six games but does have five touchdowns.
  • Antonio Gates has 13 receptions for 177 yards through two weeks. In 2013, he had 10 receptions for 173 yd through two games.
  • The Bills defense has allowed Martellus Bennett (8) and Charles Clay (7) to total 15 receptions already through two games.
  • Ben Watson (20) has run more pass routes than Ladarius Green (18) this season.
  • C.J. Spiller has been on the field for 44.4 percent of the Bills passing plays after playing just 26.6 percent in 2013.
  • Sammy Watkins’ 17.7 standard points in week two were the most by a Buffalo rookie since Willis McGahee in 2005 (20.6 points) and the most for a Bills’ rookie receiver since Lee Evans in 2004.

 

Trust: Antonio Gates, Keenan Allen

Bust: Danny Woodhead, Fred Jackson

Reasonable Return: Donald Brown, C.J. Spiller, Sammy Watkins, Philip Rivers, E.J. Manuel

 

Ravens @ Browns
-2 Spread 2
21.8 Team O/U 19.8
75.0 Plays/Gm 68.0
60.5 Plays/Gm All. 68.0
37.3% Rush % 44.1%
62.7% Pass % 55.9%
36.4% Opp. Rush % 41.2%
63.6% Opp Pass % 58.8%

 

  • In their past eight meetings, these teams average a combined 34.4 points scored and the last time a team scored 30 or more points in this matchup was 2009.
  • Torrey Smith has seen just 11 percent of the Ravens targets while Steve Smith has seen 27 percent.
  • Smith has performed well against the Browns recently, topping five receptions and 75 yards receiving in three of his past four facing Cleveland.
  • Joe Flacco in his career against the Browns averages 13.6 fantasy points with a 12/12 touchdown/interception ratio while averaging only 208 passing yards.
  • Cleveland has rushed for 120 yards as a team in two consecutive weeks, the first time that’s happened since week 13 and 14 of 2012.
  • Andrew Hawkins has back to back weeks with six or more receptions and 10 plus targets for the first time in his career.

 

Trust: Andrew Hawkins

Bust: Dennis Pitta, Bernard Pierce, Justin Forsett, Joe Flacco

Reasonable Return: Terrance West, Torrey Smith, Steve Smith

 

Titans @ Bengals
6.5 Spread -6.5
18.5 Team O/U 25
62.0 Plays/Gm 66.5
66.0 Plays/Gm All. 75.0
41.1% Rush % 53.4%
58.9% Pass % 46.6%
45.6% Opp. Rush % 26.0%
54.4% Opp Pass % 74.0%

 

  • The Bengals are 13-4 over their past 17 home games, forcing 39 turnovers while adding 48 sacks.
  • The last time A.J. Green missed a game was 2011 and Andy Dalton threw for 373 yards but also three interceptions.
  • The 27 rushing attempts last week for Gio Bernard nearly doubled his previous career high of 14 from week 13 of last year.
  • Bernard averages only 2.7 yards per carry over his past 80 rushing attempts.
  • 10 of Jeremy Hill’s 15 carries came in the second half last week while Bernard out touched him 20 to 7 in the first half.
  • Per Pro Football Focus, Kendall Wright‘s 4.1 aDOT ranks 95th out of all WR with at least five targets and his season long catch is 14 yards.
  • 95 of 167 (56.9 percent) of Wright’s career receptions have gone for less than 10 yards.

 

Trust: Cincinnati Defense

Bust: Mohamed Sanu, Jermaine Gresham, Kendall Wright, Jake Locker, Justin Hunter, Shonn Greene

Reasonable Return: Gio Bernard, Jeremy Hill, Andy Dalton, Delanie Walker

 

Cowboys @ Rams
-1 Spread 1
23.3 Team O/U 21.3
69.5 Plays/Gm 61.5
51.5 Plays/Gm All. 54.5
47.5% Rush % 41.5%
52.5% Pass % 58.5%
41.8% Opp. Rush % 56.9%
58.2% Opp Pass % 43.1%

 

  • Dallas has allowed 14 catches for 186 yards and three touchdowns in two weeks to Delanie Walker and Vernon Davis.
  • Jared Cook is second on the team in targets (12) for 18.5 percent of the team total.
  • Brian Quick is the first St. Louis wide receiver to have seven receptions in back to back games since Danny Amendola in 2012. The last Rams’ receiver to grab seven receptions in three straight games was Torry Holt in 2005.
  • Zac Stacy has 73 percent of the Rams’ backfield carries so far to start the campaign.
  • In DeMarco Murray‘s two games facing the Rams in his career, he’s totaled 56 touches for 456 yards and two touchdowns.
  • Jason Witten has four or fewer receptions in 11 of his past 13 games.
  • Dez Bryant has 24 touchdowns in his past 26 games played with multiple scores in six of those games.
  • Ten of Bryant’s past 14 touchdowns have come inside of five yards.

 

Trust: DeMarco Murray, Dez Bryant, Zac Stacy, Jared Cook

Bust: Jason Witten, Terrance Williams

Reasonable Return: Tony Romo, Brian Quick

 

Packers @ Lions
2 Spread -2
25 Team O/U 27
62.5 Plays/Gm 66.5
68.5 Plays/Gm All. 60.0
34.4% Rush % 36.1%
65.6% Pass % 63.9%
54.0% Opp. Rush % 38.3%
46.0% Opp Pass % 61.7%

 

  • The Packers have allowed multiple touchdowns passing or rushing to six consecutive opposing quarterbacks.
  • Over his past seven starts in Detroit, Stafford averages 325 passing yards to go with 13 touchdowns.
  • In 12 career games versus the Packers, Calvin Johnson averages 5.9 receptions on 12.2 targets for 96.9 yards to go along with 12 scores.
  • Joique Bell has out snapped Reggie Bush 77 to 62 and out touched him 32 to 23 through two weeks.
  • Green Bay has allowed an average of 157 rushing yards over their past 13 games, including 241 to this Detroit team last Thanksgiving.
  • Detroit has held nine of their past 12 opponents under 65 yards rushing as a team.
  • Randall Cobb now has seven scores in his past eight games played but has been held under 60 receiving yards in six straight.

 

Trust: Matt Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Joique Bell, Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson

Bust: Eddie Lacy

Reasonable Return: Randall Cobb, Golden Tate, Reggie Bush

 

Texans @ Giants
-2 Spread 2
21.8 Team O/U 20.3
60.5 Plays/Gm 62.5
61.0 Plays/Gm All. 62.0
66.1% Rush % 39.2%
33.9% Pass % 60.8%
32.8% Opp. Rush % 46.8%
67.2% Opp Pass % 53.2%

 

  • Houston has 80 attempts rushing this season. Jacksonville and Oakland have combined for 67 rushing attempts.
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick has only 41 pass attempts total through two weeks while there have already been 14 individual games with 42 or more attempts.
  • Andre Johnson has scored in just eight of his past 41 games played.
  • The Giants target distribution so far: Larry Donnell (23.6 percent), Cruz (22.2), Randle (13.9).
  • Rueben Randle has scored on seven (19.4 percent) of his past 36 receptions.
  • Victor Cruz hasn’t scored on his past 62 receptions.
  • Out of the 62 players with at least 10 rushing attempts, Andre Williams‘ 1.6 yards per carry ranks 61st.

 

Trust: Andre Johnson

Bust: DeAndre Hopkins, Alfred Blue

Reasonable Return: Victor Cruz, Rueben Randle, Larry Donnell, Eli Manning, Rashad Jennings

 

Colts @ Jaguars
-7 Spread 7
27 Team O/U 20
71.0 Plays/Gm 59.5
67.0 Plays/Gm All. 81.5
36.6% Rush % 29.4%
63.4% Pass % 70.6%
44.8% Opp. Rush % 45.4%
55.2% Opp Pass % 54.6%

 

  • The Colts won these two meetings last season by a combined score of 67-13.
  • Indianapolis has held only four of their past 26 opponents under 100 yards rushing. Three have been the Jaguars.
  • 17 of Toby Gerhart‘s 25 rushing attempts have gone for two yards or fewer.
  • The Jaguars have allowed 82 and 81 offensive plays through two weeks.
  • Ahmad Bradshaw has played 91 snaps to Trent Richardson‘s 61 through two weeks.
  • Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning are the only 2 QB to finish inside the top 5 in weekly scoring at QB each of the first two weeks.
  • Luck has scored 16 or more fantasy points in all four career starts versus the Jaguars.
  • T.Y. Hilton totaled 15 receptions for 268 yards and one touchdown in the two games against Jacksonville in 2013.
  • Reggie Wayne has scored on just 7 of his 156 receptions (4.5 percent) from Luck.

 

Trust: Andrew Luck

Bust: Toby Gerhart, Allen Robinson, Dwayne Allen, Hakeem Nicks

Reasonable Return: T.Y. Hilton, Reggie Wayne, Ahmad Bradshaw, Trent Richardson

 

Vikings @ Saints
9.5 Spread -9.5
20.8 Team O/U 30.3
59.0 Plays/Gm 69.5
61.5 Plays/Gm All. 70.5
43.2% Rush % 39.6%
56.8% Pass % 60.4%
48.0% Opp. Rush % 39.0%
52.0% Opp Pass % 61.0%

 

  • In his past 16 starts at home, Drew Brees has thrown multiple touchdowns 15 times and three or more touchdowns 13 times while averaging 330 passing yards per game.
  • In 2013, New Orleans went 8-0 at home, allowing only 15.6 points per game with 13 takeaways and 28 sacks.
  • Last Sunday was the first game in which Marques Colston did not record a reception since week seven of 2008 and did not receive a target since week 10 of 2006.
  • Last week was Jimmy Graham‘s seventh game with two or more touchdowns since the start of 2012, tying Dez Bryant for the most over that span.
  • Pierre Thomas has 8 rushing touchdowns since the Saints drafted Mark Ingram, four have come in the 11 games Ingram has been inactive.
  • Week 2 was the first time since week 11 of 2013 in which Cordarrelle Patterson did not have a rushing attempt.

 

Trust: Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham

Bust: Greg Jennings, Kyle Rudolph, Khiry Robinson. Kenny Stills

Reasonable Return: Marques Colston, Brandin Cooks, Pierre Thomas, Cordarrelle Patterson

 

Raiders @ Patriots
14 Spread -14
16.5 Team O/U 30.5
54.0 Plays/Gm 70.0
65.0 Plays/Gm All. 66.0
29.6% Rush % 40.7%
70.4% Pass % 59.3%
61.5% Opp. Rush % 43.2%
38.5% Opp Pass % 56.8%

 

  • Julian Edelman has eight consecutive games with six receptions and 60 receiving yards, longest active streak in the league.
  • Though he has only 72 receiving yards through two weeks, Rob Gronkowski has been targeted on 48.5 percent of his 33 routes this season, the highest percentage out of all tight ends.
  • Since 2012, Stevan Ridley averages 18.3 rushing attempts for 84 yards with 12 rushing scores in the 12 games in which the Patriots have won by 14 or more points.
  • Ridley’s 25 rushing attempts last Sunday were only seven fewer than the 32 rushing attempts the Raiders have on the season.
  • Of the 75 backs with at least 100 carries since the start of the 2012 season, Darren McFadden‘s 3.29 YPC ranks 73rd, ahead of only Rashard Mendenhall and LaRod Stephens-Howling.
  • Through two starts, Derek Carr‘s 30.2 fantasy points rank ninth all-time for a rookie quarterback in his first two games to start a season.

 

Trust: Julian Edelman, Patriots Defense

Bust: Aaron Dobson, Tom Brady, Derek Carr

Reasonable Return: Shane Vereen, Stevan Ridley, Rob Gronkowski, James Jones, Darren McFadden

 

Redskins @ Eagles
6.5 Spread -6.5
21.8 Team O/U 28.3
72.0 Plays/Gm 73.5
52.0 Plays/Gm All. 71.5
45.1% Rush % 40.8%
54.9% Pass % 59.2%
42.3% Opp. Rush % 44.1%
57.7% Opp Pass % 55.9%

 

  • LeSean McCoy has nine consecutive games with over 100 yards from scrimmage.
  • Darren Sproles has back to back games with double-digit touches to start the season, the first that’s happened since weeks one and two of last season.
  • Week two was the 4th 100-yard receiving game for Darren Sproles since 2012, the same amount as Torrey Smith and Reggie Wayne over that span.
  • As Nick Foles efficiency has dipped, his volume has increased. In his 10 starts in 2013, he averaged on 28.7 pass attempts and topped 300 passing yards only twice. Through two weeks he’s averaging 41 passes and has thrown for 300 yards each game.
  • Through two weeks, Zach Ertz has six receptions of 20 yards or longer, tied with Julio Jones for the most in the league.
  • Both teams went over 400 yards of offense in their last meeting in week 11 last year but combined for only 40 total points.
  • Philadelphia allowed 19.6 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in 2013 and have allowed both opposing quarterbacks they’ve faced to start the season to throw multiple touchdowns.
  • In Kirk Cousins‘ first two career starts, he averaged 355 passing yards. In his past two, he’s averaged 183.
  • Pierre Garcon has topped 100 yards twice in his past nine games, both with Cousins starting.
  • In the four previous starts with Kirk Cousins, Garcon averages 7.5 receptions for 98.5 receiving yards per game.

 

Trust: LeSean McCoy, Pierre Garcon, Nick Foles

Bust: DeSean Jackson, Niles Paul, Riley Cooper

Reasonable Return: Darren Sproles, Jeremy Maclin, Zach Ertz, Alfred Morris, Kirk Cousins

 

49ers @ Cardinals
-2.5 Spread 2.5
22.5 Team O/U 20
59.5 Plays/Gm 63.0
57.5 Plays/Gm All. 64.0
47.9% Rush % 42.9%
52.1% Pass % 57.1%
34.8% Opp. Rush % 39.8%
65.2% Opp Pass % 60.2%

 

  • Larry Fitzgerald had six receptions and 100 receiving yards in each meeting between these two in 2013.
  • Per Pro Football Focus, Michael Floyd‘s 20.5 aDot is the highest for any receiver with double-digit targets to start the season.
  • With his 167 yards this past week, Drew Stanton has failed to reach 200 passing yards in four of his five career starts.
  • Frank Gore has rushed for 100 yards in only two of his past 13 games.
  • Arizona has allowed one 100 yard rusher over their past 21 games, which was Gore in week six of last season.
  • Colin Kaepernick averages 19.4 fantasy points and 279.3 passing yards in his three starts versus Arizona, throwing two touchdowns in each game.
  • Anquan Boldin has faced his former club three times since leaving the Cardinals, topping 145 yards receiving in two of the three games.

 

Trust: Larry Fitzgerald

Bust: Andre Ellington, Frank Gore

Reasonable Return: Colin Kaepernick, Anquan Boldin, Michael Crabtree, Michael Floyd

 

Broncos @ Seahawks
4.5 Spread -4.5
21.8 Team O/U 26.8
57.5 Plays/Gm 53.0
72.5 Plays/Gm All. 66.0
44.4% Rush % 47.2%
55.6% Pass % 52.8%
31.0% Opp. Rush % 43.9%
69.0% Opp Pass % 56.1%

 

  • Peyton Manning has thrown multiple touchdowns in eight consecutive regular season games and three or more in four straight.
  • Manning hasn’t thrown an interception on his past 141 regular season attempts, longest current streak. Russell Wilson hasn’t thrown an interception on his past 76 attempts which is third.
  • If Manning were to throw for the 280 yards this Sunday that he had the Super Bowl, it will be his season high.
  • The last quarterback to throw three touchdowns in Seattle was Matt Ryan in week 15 of 2010.
  • Last weekend was Emmanuel Sanders‘ first 100 yard receiving game through 58 games.
  • Julius Thomas has 16 touchdowns on his first 77 NFL receptions. For comparison, Rob Gronkowski had 15 and Jimmy Graham had 10 scores on their first 77 receptions.
  • Percy Harvin has 40 or more rushing yards in each of the first two games this year, the first time he’s had back to back games with that 40 rushing yards.

 

Trust: Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, Russell Wilson

Bust: Emmanuel Sanders, Marshawn Lynch, Doug Baldwin

Reasonable Return: Percy Harvin, Peyton Manning, Montee Ball

 

Chiefs @ Dolphins
4.5 Spread -4.5
18.5 Team O/U 23
65.5 Plays/Gm 72.5
60.5 Plays/Gm All. 69.5
36.6% Rush % 40.7%
63.4% Pass % 59.3%
47.1% Opp. Rush % 38.1%
52.9% Opp Pass % 61.9%

 

  • Travis Kelce has been targeted on 32.4 percent of his routes. Only Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham have been targeted more frequently per route at tight end this season.
  • Including last season’s playoff game, Knile Davis has seven rushing touchdowns on his past 89 rushing attempts and has scored in five of his past seven games.
  • Davis averages only 3.3 yards per carry on the 89 rushing attempts in those games, however.
  • Miami has allowed only four 100-yard rushers over their past 48 games.
  • Alex Smith has 12 games with 25 or more rushing yards since the start of last season, most out of all quarterbacks.
  • There have been 130 different 300 yard passing games since the start of last season, Smith has accounted for none of those.
  • Ryan Tannehill‘s 4.80 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) ranks 31st out of 36 quarterbacks who have thrown a pass this season. Alex Smith’s 4.44 AY/A ranks 33rd.
  • After scoring only one touchdown in first 10 games with Miami, Mike Wallace has scored in six of his past eight.
  • Tannehill has two completions of over 20 yards this season, the same amount as Shaun Hill, Robert Griffin and Drew Stanton.

 

Trust: Mike Wallace, Knile Davis

Bust: Brian Hartline, Charles Clay, Dwayne Bowe

Reasonable Return: Lamar Miller, Ryan Tannehill, Alex Smith

 

Steelers @ Panthers
3.5 Spread -3.5
19.3 Team O/U 22.3
62.0 Plays/Gm 65.5
64.5 Plays/Gm All. 62.5
37.9% Rush % 43.5%
62.1% Pass % 56.5%
51.2% Opp. Rush % 28.0%
48.8% Opp Pass % 72.0%

 

  • Ben Roethlisberger has gone 29 of 49 for 304 yards with no touchdowns since the first half of week one.
  • Carolina hasn’t allowed an opponent to score more than 20 points at home in their past 11 games.
  • The past four players to reach double-digit fantasy points in Carolina have all been tight ends (Graham, Jeff Cumberland, Gronk, Tony Gonzalez).
  • The only running back to reach double-digit standard scoring in Carolina since the start of last season was Zac Stacy.
  • Le’Veon Bell has double-digit standard points in five straight, averaging 17.1 per game.

 

Trust: Cam Newton, Antonio Brown

Bust: Ben Roethlisberger, Markus Wheaton

Reasonable Return: Le’Veon Bell, Jonathan Stewart, Kelvin Benjamin, Greg Olsen, Heath Miller

 

Bears @ Jets
3 Spread -3
21.5 Team O/U 24
60.5 Plays/Gm 68.0
60.5 Plays/Gm All. 58.5
28.9% Rush % 52.2%
71.1% Pass % 47.8%
49.6% Opp. Rush % 31.6%
50.4% Opp Pass % 68.4%

 

  • In the 12 games in which Cutler has played the majority of the snaps since Bennett joined the Bears, he averages 4.9 receptions for 52.8 yards and has six touchdowns.
  • 44.4 percent of Geno Smith‘s fantasy output over his past six games have come from rushing.
  • The only quarterbacks who had over 40 percent of their fantasy output stem from rushing in 2013 were Terrelle Pryor and Mike Vick.
  • Chris Johnson has only one run of 25 yards or longer in his past 304 rushing attempts.
  • Chris Ivory has eight runs of 25 yards or longer since the start of last season (205 attempts), tied for most in the league with Alfred Morris.
  • Matt Forte‘s 36 yards from scrimmage were his lowest total since week 12 2011 when he was forced out with an injury.
  • The Bears have run the ball the least of any team so far to start the season in terms of play calling percentages, while the Jets have allowed only 105 rushing yards total on the season.

 

Trust: Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery

Bust: Jeremy Kerley, Chris Johnson

Reasonable Return: Matt Forte, Martellus Bennett, Chris Ivory, Geno Smith, Eric Decker

 

*Statistics provided by ProFootballFocus, Pro-Football-Reference, NFLData.com. All Vegas Lines Provided by 5Dimes

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