Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+7)*
It takes little observation to deduce that the Colts are better than the Jaguars, but there are times when numbers and guidelines outrank perception and names. It is easy to overlook the success rate of certain spreads, but this column will never pass up the opportunity to take a touchdown underdog at home. Nothing is guaranteed, but this setup beats the spread at an alarming rate.
Indianapolis is facing the same potential 0-3 start as New Orleans, except the Colts are playing on the road against a division opponent. The difficulty, here, is in the projection of the remainder of the year. Indianapolis falling to 0-3 would effectively spell the end of their season. In the same vein as the Saints, we ask the question, “Are the Colts victims of bad luck or simply bad?”
Regardless, home field advantage has been statistically proven to exist. Furthermore, the bigger the crowd, the bigger possibility for influencing factors that contribute to a home victory. In a few weeks, EverBank Field in Jacksonville may be barren, but for the team’s home opener, Jaguars’ fans should be in full-force.
The confidence pick is for Jacksonville to beat the spread, but it is still early enough in the season for the Jaguars to stop the bleeding. It shouldn’t be overlooked that Indianapolis is also winless — granted, against better teams than Jacksonville’s opponents. Perhaps the two teams aren’t as far apart as we like to believe.
The Jaguars play a complete game, Indianapolis fails to pull away and Jacksonville finishes the upset at home, beating the Colts by a field goal.
