When determining which way to go with my daily fantasy baseball lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before deciding which players to roll with.
First things first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas lines are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favorable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
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These lineups are made with 50/50 and heads-up games in mind.
Miami Marlins (Eovaldi) at Atlanta Braves (Harang)
Nathan Eovaldi is one of my top pitching plays of the day. He’s probably been a bit unlucky in his earned runs and still has a more-than-reasonable salary. As weird as this sounds, I would probably avoid all non-cheap hitters from Miami against Aaron Harang.
Nathan Eovaldi (SP) – $14,371
Garrett Jones (1B) – $5796
Harang is off to a very good start for the year but it’s just a matter of time before he gets shelled, hard. I’m not going to play the “Ticking Time Bomb” game with him so I’ll just keep him out of my lineups for now. Being high on Eovaldi, I will just avoid the Braves’ hitters for today.
