When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with in my lineups.
First things first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas line are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favourable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information.
These lineups are made with 50/50 and heads-up games in mind.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
Zack Greinke has been absolutely dominant in his three career starts in San Diego, which would not bode well for a Padres lineup that lacks elite hitting. Last year against the Padres, Greinke held opposing hitters to an OPS under .400 and allowed just three runs in 85 at bats. On the flipside, Andre Ethier absolutely owned Ian Kennedy last year and is 7-for-16 against him over the last two seasons.
Zack Greinke (SP) – $19,137
Adrian Gonzalez (1B) – $6303
Andre Ethier (OF) – $5733
I expect Greinke to dominate the Padres today, so I wouldn’t be keen on too many of their hitters. If starter Ian Kennedy can keep the game anywhere close, it would seem like the value for Padres hitters today is in their speed guys. It’s not an endorsement of any of their players, just if DFS owners out there are looking for cheap options.
