Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
As we tend to write on a constant basis when picking Browns’ games – admittedly, incorrectly, as Cleveland has stymied us all season – their ability to win games in nearly miraculous, last-second fashion subscribes to two completely opposite schools of thought: either the Browns are so good that they win by any means necessary, or they’ve been extremely fortunate to get opportunities late in games despite trailing for large chunks of time. Case in point, the previously 4-6 Falcons led the Browns with less than a minute left in the game. If the Browns want to play like the 7-4 team they now are, they should never have even let the Falcons get that close.
That’s why the belief that the Browns are playing over their heads remains consistent on a weekly basis. Had Falcons head coach Mike Brown managed the clock properly, or the Titans hold on to a 13-point lead in the fourth quarter, or the Saints learn how to play defense in the final minutes of a game, the Browns’ record would more closely depict the performance of the team.
The Bills have no more impressive wins on their resume than the Browns – each team has exactly two wins versus opponents with winning records – but they return home after being displaced by several feet of snow to try to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. While a 6-5 record probably already places the Bills behind too many teams in the AFC playoff hunt, one they would need to pass along the way is their visitors from Cleveland.
Buffalo wins by a touchdown and covers.
