When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.
First thing’s first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas lines are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favorable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
These lineups are made with double-ups in mind.
Oakland Athletics (Milone) at Baltimore Orioles (Chen)
I’m avoiding both pitchers here as there should be a lot of runs in this game.
Oakland is averaging over six runs a game going back about a week and a half now and they are a top-12 team in wOBA against lefty pitching for the year. They have a few guys riding hot streaks but the prices are starting to get real expensive and that makes it hard to stack them. Ditto for Baltimore. The Orioles have averaged a little over five runs again over the same stretch as Oakland and are a top-15 team in wOBA against lefty pitching this year.
Picking which guys will click isn’t always easy so I’d focus on the guys that are swinging a hot bat right now.
Yoenis Cespedes (OAK-OF) – $7227
Derek Norris (OAK-C) – $6968
Kyle Blanks (OAK-OF) – $4937
Manny Machado (BAL-3B) – $5882
Adam Jones (BAL-OF) – $7346