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When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.
First thing’s first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas lines are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favorable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
These lineups are made with double-ups in mind.
New York Mets (Wheeler) at Philadelphia Phillies (Buchanan)
I would take a harder look at Wheeler if he weren’t walking so many guys. His walk rate kills his value. I’m never really high on Mets hitters but Wright has been on a tear this month. There are also a couple of other guys who have hit well recently, one of which is the catcher.
David Wright (3B) – $5743
Anthony Recker (C) – $4136
Buchanan is a low-K guy so outside of a cheap large GPP option, he can be passed on. I’m not sure about this Phillies offense so other than a couple of their lefties, I’ll shy away from this team tonight. Neither team is really a team to stack tonight.
Chase Utley (2B) – $7843
Ben Revere (OF) – $5646
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