When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.
First thing’s first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas lines are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favorable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
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These lineups are made with double-ups in mind.
New York Yankees (Tanaka) at New York Mets (Montero)
Tanaka is the number-2 pitcher in price today on the board for late games and using either him or Johnny Cueto would probably entail using a closer on top of that. Tanaka should make a fine target for today. The Yankees will be facing a rookie in Montero who has shown good strikeout ability in the minors. I’m not going to target many of them specifically.
Masahiro Tanaka (SP) – $24,815
Kelly Johnson (1B) – $5706
Montero is a rookie making his MLB debut. He’s one of the top pitching prospects for the Mets and is a righty who throws in the low-90s with a bit of movement. Every scouting report (and his numbers) indicate that he has good control, so expect a lot of strikes. I’d like to take the risk but at his price (over $13K) it’s not worth it. I’m avoiding the Mets’ hitters against Tanaka, too.
