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When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.
First things first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas lines are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favorable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
These lineups are made with double-ups in mind.
Detroit Tigers (Porcello) at Baltimore Orioles (Norris)
Rick Porcello, for the most part, has pitched very well this year. The walks are minimal and he’s lasted at least six innings in five out of six starts this year. He’s already faced Baltimore once this year and allowed one earned runs over 6.2 innings. Considering he’s priced outside the top-12 pitchers today, I like his price. The hitters’ prices are getting a bit too expensive, though.
Rick Porcello (SP) – $14,229
Torii Hunter (OF) – $7480
Bud Norris has had a problem over his last couple of outings getting deep into games and producing a good K:BB ratio. I’ll pass on him today. I’ll also take a pass on most of their hitters against Porcello today.
Nick Markakis (OF) – $6301
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