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When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.
First things first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas lines are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favourable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
These lineups are made with 50/50 and heads-up games in mind.
Tampa Bay Rays (Archer) at Boston Red Sox (Doubront)
We’ve seen Archer’s range with two bad starts, one okay start, and two very good starts. I’m not overly keen on using him tonight in Boston, especially considering there are better options around Archer’s price point. I do think the Rays have a good night at the plate against Doubront, though.
Evan Longoria (3B) – $7864
Sean Rodriguez (2B) – $5481
The Rays aren’t exactly a terrifying team, but Doubront’s average start has been under five innings so far this year. Even at his cheap price I can’t risk him until there’s actually some signs of a turn-around. I wouldn’t be afraid of taking Red Sox lefties tonight against Archer but I would avoid stacking them outright.
Grady Sizemore (OF) – $5107
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