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When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.
First things first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas line are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favourable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
These lineups are made with 50/50 and heads-up games in mind.
Atlanta Braves (Wood) at Philadelphia Phillies (Burnett)
Alex Wood has been solid this year but his only issue has been the home run (three allowed in 19 innings so far). Having that issue and going into Great American Ball Park with the way the Phillies are swinging the bats (usually) is a bad idea. I’ll stay away for this one. Their elite bats are starting to get a bit high-priced, though.
Jason Heyward (OF) – $6730
Chris Johnson (3B) – $3540
Burnett is struggling through a hernia injury so I will stay away from him for the foreseeable future. There aren’t many (any) Phillies hitters with an extensive history against Wood, though, so tonight might be a bit of a crapshoot for Phillies hitters.
Carlos Ruiz (C) – $6432
Ryan Howard (1B) – $4800
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