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When determining which way to go with my daily fantasy baseball lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with in my lineups.
First things first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas line are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favourable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
These lineups are made with 50/50 and heads-up games in mind.
Atlanta Braves (Santana) at Philadephia Phillies (Hernandez)
Ervin Santana was lights out in his first start this year, but I mean hey, one start, right? His price is fine for tonight but there are other pitchers around his price point that I like as much or better, so I might just stay away from his fly balls and Citizens Bank Park. I’m also concerned about the strikeout potential of the Braves’ hitters tonight.
Freddie Freeman (1B) – $8893
Andrelton Simmons (SS) – $5050
Hernandez has posted 14 Ks in just 10.1 innings so far this year, generating a ridiculous 33.3-percent swinging strike-percentage on his change-up. If he can get the Braves chasing like he has the Pirates and Cubs this year, I like Hernandez’s price tonight.
Roberto Hernandez (SP) – $13,139
Ryan Howard (1B) – $5499
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