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NFL Week 16 Picks: Can The Bengals Get Past The Broncos?

Mario Mergola makes picks against the spread for every week 16 NFL matchup.

Jeremy Hill

Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys (-3)

Everything about this game — right down to the spread being a generic ‘three points from the home team — breeds uncertainty. Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray has a broken bone in his hand, yet is currently listed as ‘questionable’ for the game. Dallas also appears to have cured its late-season woes with a crucial win on national television. But, are they getting too much credit too quickly?

Then there are the Colts. Riding high — winners of four straight games and 10-2 since losing their first two — yet with only two wins against teams currently with a winning record. They play well regardless of venue — 6-2 at home, and 4-2 on the road — while Dallas actually outperforms away from its home stadium — 3-4 at home versus 7-0 on the road.

If anything, all of these factors help deflate a spread that may have otherwise grown. Whenever that happens, we tend to take the favorite — think New Orleans last Monday night with the perception that the Saints can’t win on the road, as well as the ‘

With question marks around DeMarco Murray, concerns that the team will still choke away its division lead, and facing an opponent that is likely locked into its position in the AFC seeding, the Cowboys, despite giving three points, are being largely downplayed. This imbalance is the biggest deciding factor.

Dallas wins by a touchdown and covers.

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