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Fantasy Football Week 16 Worksheet

Rich Hribar

Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer.

Week 16 is here and if you didn’t reach seasonal championship game, there’s still plenty to cover for daily fantasy purposes so let’s hit the full slate of games bullet point style …

Titans @ Jaguars
3 Spread -3
19 Team O/U 21.5
56.6 Plays/Gm 62.9
69.9 Opp. Plays/Gm 67.2
38.3% Rush % 36.6%
61.7% Pass % 63.4%
47.1% Opp. Rush % 45.9%
52.9% Opp. Pass % 54.1%

 

  • The Titans haven’t scored a touchdown on their past 23 drives.
  • The Jaguars have scored a touchdown on just two of their 46 drives (four percent) since their week 11 bye, lowest percentage in the league.
  • No team has faced more rushing attempts this season (460, 32.9 per game) and rushing yards (1,954) as Tennessee.
  • Jacksonville (73) and Tennessee (91) have combined for 164 red zone plays this season. Miami leads the league at 167 red zone plays.
  • Shonn Greene only played 35 percent of the snaps last week, but had a touch on 70.8 percent of this snaps.
  • Bishop Sankey only played 17.6 percent of the snaps, his lowest total since week 1.
  • The average DST finish versus the Jaguars is DST7 for the season.
  • The average DST finish versus the Titan is DST7.6 over the past six weeks.

Trust: Delanie Walker

Bust: Shonn Greene, Bishop Sankey, Marqise Lee

Reasonable Return: Toby Gerhart, Cecil Shorts, Allen Hurns, Nate Washington

 

Eagles @ Washington
-9 Spread 9
29 Team O/U 21.5
69.6 Plays/Gm 63.1
70.1 Opp. Plays/Gm 59.5
42.5% Rush % 39.4%
57.5% Pass % 60.6%
42.8% Opp. Rush % 43.7%
57.2% Opp. Pass % 56.3%

 

  • Since their week 10 bye, Washington has allowed 13 touchdown passes, most in the league.
  • Washington is allowing 0.59 passing points per attempt, most in the league .
  • Over the past six weeks, Jeremy Maclin is averaging 14.5 points per game after averaging 21.8 over the first eight.
  • After averaging 328.3 passing yards per game over his first three starts, Mark Sanchez has 188.3 yards per game over the past three.
  • LeSean McCoy has 20 or more carries in nine games, second most behind DeMarco Murray (11).
  • 82 percent of McCoy‘s scoring is from rushing production, fourth highest percentage in the league.
  • McCoy is averaging a career lows in receptions per game (1.7) and yards per reception (4.7).
  • Darren Sproles‘ 6.4 touches per game are his lowest since 2008, yet has a career best 13.8 touches per touchdown.
  • DeSean Jackson has a 19 point plus game with all three Washington quarterbacks this season.
  • Washington has allowed 36 sacks over their past six games, most in the league.
  • Alfred Morris has been a top 12 scoring running back in three of the four starts by Robert Griffin this season (excluding Jacksonville) and averages 17.3 points in those games.
  • Jordan Reed has the most targets (51) without a touchdown on the season.

Trust: Mark Sanchez, Jeremy Maclin, DeSean Jackson

Bust: Darren Sproles, Zach Ertz, Jordan Reed

Reasonable Return: Robert Griffin, Alfred Morris, Pierre Garcon, LeSean McCoy, Jordan Matthews

 

Chargers @ 49ers
1 Spread -1
20 Team O/U 21.5
61.6 Plays/Gm 63.1
61.9 Opp. Plays/Gm 60.1
40.4% Rush % 44.9%
59.6% Pass % 55.1%
43.1% Opp. Rush % 41.9%
56.9% Opp. Pass % 58.1%

 

  • The 49ers average only 1.3 offensive touchdowns per game at home (eight total), fewest in the league.
  • San Francisco has scored a touchdown on just six of 73 offensive possessions in the second half this season, fewest in the league.
  • Colin Kaepernick has 146 fewer yards, five fewer touchdowns and two more interceptions on 12 more throws than all of last season.
  • Kaepernick has been sacked 3.5 times per game this season as opposed to 2.3 times per game over the previous two seasons.
  • San Francisco allows 153.3 passing yards per game at home, fewest in the league. Their 92.2 yard disparity from home to road split is the largest in the league.
  • Philip Rivers‘ average weekly finish over his past eight games is QB19.
  • Antonio Gates is just the 9th player ever to have 10 or more touchdown receptions at age 34 or older and the first since Terrell Owens in 2008.
  • Keenan Allen finishes 2014 with just four top 24 scoring weeks this season, the same number as Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon and Michael Floyd.
  • San Diego has rushed for 70 yards in just six games this season, fewest in the league.

Trust: Anquan Boldin

Bust: Philip Rivers, Ryan Mathews, Branden Oliver, Michael Crabtree

Reasonable Return: Colin Kaepernick, Alfonso Smith, Antonio Gates, Malcom Floyd

 

Ravens @ Texans
-5.5 Spread 5.5
23.5 Team O/U 18
63.5 Plays/Gm 64.6
63.7 Opp. Plays/Gm 68.3
45.4% Rush % 52.5%
54.6% Pass % 47.5%
36.2% Opp. Rush % 40.8%
63.8% Opp. Pass % 59.2%

 

  • Houston scored on only one of the eight possessions after Ryan Fitzpatrick was lost, averaging 25.3 yards per drive.
  • The last 100-yard rusher against the Ravens was Eddie Lacy back in week 6 of last season.
  • After averaging 19.1 points per game through six weeks, Steve Smith has averaged just 9.8 over the past eight games.
  • Houston hasn’t allowed a top 10 scoring quarterback since week 6.
  • The Texans are allowing just 0.46 points per rushing attempt, second lowest behind Detroit (0.43).
  • Per Pro Football Focus, Case Keenum averaged depth of target (aDOT) was 9.7 yards, 9th highest in 2013.
  • Hopkins has 11 receptions of 30 yards or longer this season (tied for third most), Johnson has zero.
  • Baltimore is allowing just 1.1 sacks per game this season (second best) after allowing 3.0 in 2013 (28th).

Trust: DeAndre Hopkins

Bust: Joe Flacco, Justin Forsett, Owen Daniels, Steve Smith

Reasonable Return: Andre Johnson, Arian Foster, Torrey Smith

 

Browns @ Panthers
n/a Spread n/a
n/a Team O/U n/a
64.5 Plays/Gm 66.7
69.7 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.1
47.1% Rush % 42.3%
52.9% Pass % 57.7%
43.8% Opp. Rush % 40.6%
56.2% Opp. Pass % 59.4%

 

  • Carolina has scored on 42.3 percent of their possessions with Derek Anderson at quarterback (11 of 26) as opposed to 33.3 percent with Cam Newton (44 of 132).
  • Anderson is averaging 0.50 passing points per attempt, 7th in the league. Newton is at 0.39, which ranks 28th.
  • Cleveland has allowed only one quarterback (Mike Glennon) to throw for 7.0 yards per attempt or higher over their past 10 games.
  • Greg Olsen has been targeted on 28.4 percent of his routes the past three weeks, highest of all tight ends.
  • In Johnny Manziel’s first start, Cleveland averaged just 3.8 plays for 10.8 yards per offensive possession with just four first downs that came from non-penalty plays.
  • The 107 total yards gained by Cleveland were the lowest for any team in a game this season and the fewest for the Browns franchise since week 14 2004 (26 yards).
  • 42.2 percent of Isaiah Crowell‘s points this season have come from touchdowns, highest dependency of all backs in the top 50 of scoring.
  • Josh Gordon has one top 30 scoring week since returning.
  • Gordon has been targeted on 33.9 percent of his routes since returning, third highest in the league.

Trust: Jonathan Stewart, Greg Olsen

Bust: Johnny Manziel, Josh Gordon, Isaiah Crowell, Terrance West, Jordan Cameron, Cam Newton

Reasonable Return: Kelvin Benjamin

 

Lions @ Bears
-7.5 Spread 7.5
26.5 Team O/U 19
65.0 Plays/Gm 63.1
61.4 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.8
38.1% Rush % 35.3%
61.9% Pass % 64.7%
33.7% Opp. Rush % 41.3%
66.3% Opp. Pass % 58.7%

 

  • The Lions average only 1.3 offensive touchdowns per game on the road, 30th in the league.
  • Reggie Bush ranks 45th in points per target at 1.16.
  • After posting just two top 12 scoring weeks through 11 games, Joique Bell has finished RB4, RB3 and RB10 over his past three games.
  • Chicago allowed only one top 12 scoring running back through eight games, but have allowed four over their past six games.
  • 75.4 percent of the yards gained by Detroit this season have been passing, highest percentage in the league.
  • Only three backs have rushed for more than 50 yards against the Lions this season, with a season high of 84 yards by Chris Ivory.
  • Alshon Jeffery has caught a touchdown in five straight games, longest current streak in the league.
  • Jay Cutler has finished in the top half of weekly scoring 11 times this season, behind only Andrew Luck (14), Drew Brees (13), Peyton Manning (12) and tied with Aaron Rodgers.

Trust: Joique Bell, Calvin Johnson, Matt Stafford, Martellus Bennett

Bust: Marquess Wilson, Alshon Jeffery, Reggie Bush

Reasonable Return: Golden Tate, Matt Forte

 

Packers @ Buccaneers
-11.5 Spread 11.5
30 Team O/U 18.5
62.0 Plays/Gm 58.9
67.2 Opp. Plays/Gm 66.6
42.3% Rush % 36.5%
57.7% Pass % 63.5%
43.4% Opp. Rush % 44.4%
56.6% Opp. Pass % 55.6%

 

  • Jordy Nelson is third in the league on red zone targets (25) but tied for 26th in touchdowns (four).
  • Eddie Lacy has 100 or more yards from scrimmage in seven consecutive games, tying the franchise record held by Ahman Green over 2000-2001.
  • Tampa Bay has allowed just one 100-yard rusher despite seeing the 5th largest percentage of rushing play this season.
  • Since Gerald McCoy joined Tampa Bay, they’ve allowed 111.4 rushing yards per game with him active and 168.5 yards per game without him.
  • Doug Martin‘s 63 yard carry last week was more yards than he had in any of his previous nine games played.
  • Vincent Jackson has more red zone targets (14) than Mike Evans (12) but Evans has converted five for scores to Jackson’s two.
  • Jackson has scored on just 1.5 percent of his targets, lowest in the league.

Trust: Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson

Bust: Doug Martin

Reasonable Return: Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, James Starks

 

Chiefs @ Steelers
3 Spread -3
21.8 Team O/U 24.8
59.9 Plays/Gm 68.5
64.7 Opp. Plays/Gm 57.8
45.3% Rush % 39.5%
54.7% Pass % 60.5%
42.2% Opp. Rush % 40.2%
57.8% Opp. Pass % 59.8%

 

  • Pittsburgh has allowed eight consecutive top 10 scoring quarterbacks and an average of 22.5 points per game over that stretch.
  • Over the past two weeks, Albert Wilson has played 73 percent of the snaps, is second on the team in targets (13), receptions (7) and yards (122).
  • The Steelers have allowed a tight end to score in six of their past seven games.
  • Over the past five weeks, Travis Kelce leads the Chiefs in targets (28), receptions (22) and yards (309).
  • Pittsburgh has allowed 25 pass plays of 30 yards or more, most in the league. Kansas City has nine pass plays of 30 yards plus, tied for 29th.
  • Antonio Brown averages 29.4 points per game at home this season with a low total of 22.1.
  • At home, Brown has scored eight of his 11 touchdowns.
  • Brown has five or more receptions in 30 consecutive games; the next highest current streak is seven.
  • Jamaal Charles has 20 or more carries in only three games this season, fewer than C.J. Anderson and only one more than Knile Davis.
  • Bell has 34 carries of 10 or more yards, third most in the league.
  • Le’Veon Bell is the fifth player ever to have amassed 3,000 or more yards from scrimmage (3,302 and counting) before turning 23 years old. The others were Mashall Faulk, Edgerrin James, Clinton Portis and Barry Sanders.
  • Kansas City has allowed the most runs of 10 or more yards in the league (62).

Trust: Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, Alex Smith, Jamaal Charles, Travis Kelce

Bust: Dwayne Bowe, Heath Miller

Reasonable Return: Albert Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger

 

Vikings @ Dolphins
7.5 Spread -7.5
17.5 Team O/U 25
61.6 Plays/Gm 64.1
63.5 Opp. Plays/Gm 64.9
40.8% Rush % 39.0%
59.2% Pass % 61.0%
44.9% Opp. Rush % 43.0%
55.1% Opp. Pass % 57.0%

 

  • Lamar Miller has failed to score in five of his past six games and has been held to fewer than 70 yards rushing in six of his past seven.
  • Minnesota has allowed 140.2 rushing yards per game over their past six, holding only Detroit under 120 team yards on the ground.
  • Jarvis Landry has five or more receptions in seven straight games, one behind the team record of eight by O.J. McDuffie in 1998.
  • Per Pro Football Focus, only seven of Landry’s 71 receptions have been beyond 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.
  • Landry’s 5.5 yard average depth of target (aDOT) is above only Tavon Austin‘s 3.9 aDOT of all receivers that have played 50 percent of his team’s snaps this season per Pro Football Focus.
  • Over his past six games, Teddy Bridgewater is averaging 15.7 points per game with three top 12 scoring weeks.
  • Bridgewater was the first Vikings quarterback to throw for 300-yards in back to back games since Brett Favre in 2009.
  • After allowing just one top 10 scoring quarterback through eight games, Miami has allowed four over their past six games.
  • Charles Johnson has been a top 30 receiver in four of the past five weeks.
  • Over those five weeks, Johnson leads the team in targets (37), receptions (20), and receiving yards (355) and is tied with Greg Jennings with three touchdowns.

Trust: Lamar Miller, Charles Johnson

Bust: Mike Wallace, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Asiata

Reasonable Return: Jarvis Landry, Teddy Bridgewater, Kyle Rudolph

 

Patriots @ Jets
-11.5 Spread 11.5
29.5 Team O/U 18
67.7 Plays/Gm 66.4
65.3 Opp. Plays/Gm 60.5
37.9% Rush % 47.5%
62.1% Pass % 52.5%
38.7% Opp. Rush % 41.2%
61.3% Opp. Pass % 58.8%

 

  • Since week 5, the Patriots have scored on 56 percent of their drives, highest in the league. NFL average over that stretch is 35 percent.
  • Over his past 10 games, Tom Brady is averaging 22.6 points per game with nine over 17 points. In those games he’s thrown 28 touchdowns to six interceptions, with multiple passing scores each week.
  • Brady has only been sacked 1.1 times per game this season as opposed to 2.5 times per game in 2013.
  • The Jets have allowed five quarterbacks to throw three or more touchdowns, toed with Chicago and Philadelphia for the most in the league.
  • Over his past six games, Julian Edelman leads New England in targets (65), averaging 7.8 receptions for 84.2 yards with five games with double digit targets.
  • In the five games Rob Gronkowski has failed to score, he’s still averaged 13.0 points.
  • Last week was the first time in Percy Harvin‘s career he failed to record a reception and his one touch was the fewest he’s had in any game.

Trust: Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman

Bust: Eric Decker, Percy Harvin,  LaGarrette Blount, Jonas Gray

Reasonable Return: Shane Vereen, Chris Ivory, Brandon LaFell

 

Falcons @ Saints
7 Spread -7
24.5 Team O/U 31.5
64.6 Plays/Gm 68.7
65.4 Opp. Plays/Gm 64.0
36.9% Rush % 37.9%
63.1% Pass % 62.1%
43.3% Opp. Rush % 42.6%
56.7% Opp. Pass % 57.4%

 

  • Matt Ryan has thrown 35 or more pass attempts in 11 games this season, tied with Tom Brady for the most in the league.
  • Ryan’s average weekly finish was QB16 through eight games with only two top 12 scoring weeks. Over his past six games he’s been on average QB8 with five top 12 weeks.
  • Ryan averages 21.1 points per game over his past four starts in New Orleans.
  • Mark Ingram has rushed on 52.5 percent of his snaps and has a touch on 58.8 percent; both are the highest percentage in the league.
  • Ingram leads the league in carries inside the 5-yard line with 17.
  • Pierre Thomas has played more snaps (77 total) than Ingram (45) in each of the past two weeks.
  • Atlanta has allowed seven different backs to catch five or more passes in a game this season, most in the league.
  • Drew Brees averages 298 passing yards, 2.5 touchdown passes and 20.1 points in his past seven starts at home facing the Falcons.
  • New Orleans ranks last (0.72) and Atlanta 30th (0.69) in points allowed per rushing attempt.
  • Kenny Stills leads all receivers in yards per target (11.5) out of the top 50 in scoring.

Trust: Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Drew Brees, Mark Ingram, Jimmy Graham

Bust: Marques Colston

Reasonable Return: Pierre Thomas, Kenny Stills, Steven Jackson, Harry Douglas

 

Giants @ Rams
5 Spread -5
19.3 Team O/U 24.3
67.2 Plays/Gm 60.2
62.9 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.6
41.5% Rush % 42.2%
58.5% Pass % 57.8%
43.8% Opp. Rush % 40.8%
56.2% Opp. Pass % 59.2%

 

  • The Rams haven’t allowed an offensive touchdown on their opponents’ past 37 drives.
  • New York has allowed only two offensive touchdowns on their opponents’ past 35 drives.
  • Louis has allowed opponents to score on 29 percent of their drives at home this season, lowest percentage in the league.
  • The Giants have 22 sacks over the past three weeks, most in the league with at least seven sacks in each game.
  • Odell Beckham has 172 more receiving yards (866) than the next closest player over the past seven weeks.
  • Beckham is first in points per target (2.31) out of the top 50 scorers, while Rueben Randle is 49th (1.26).
  • Tre Mason has a touch on 53.4 percent of his snaps, which is the third highest mark behind only Mark Ingram and DeMarco Murray.

Trust: Odell Beckham

Bust: Andre Williams, Rashad Jennings, Larry Donnell

Reasonable Return: Tre Mason, Eli Manning

 

Bills @ Raiders
-5.5 Spread 5.5
22.3 Team O/U 16.8
64.1 Plays/Gm 61.9
63.9 Opp. Plays/Gm 64.5
39.6% Rush % 32.7%
60.4% Pass % 67.3%
39.6% Opp. Rush % 48.1%
60.4% Opp. Pass % 51.9%

 

  • Oakland averages 2.5 offensive touchdowns per game at home as opposed to 1.1 on the road.
  • Derek Carr has thrown for at least 200 yards in just five games, 28th in the league and the same amount as Austin Davis and Kirk Cousins.
  • Buffalo ranks first in the league in passing points allowed per attempt (0.30). Carr ranks 41st in passing points per attempt at 0.31.
  • Mychal Rivera has six or more receptions in five games over the past eight weeks, the most of any tight end.
  • Oakland faces the highest percentage of run plays per week and second most attempts per game (31.0).
  • Since Kyle Orton took over as the starter, Buffalo has a 62/38 percent pass to run split, the 9th most pass heavy team. With E.J. Manuel they had a 55/45 split.
  • Since returning in week 12, Fred Jackson has 57.8 percent of the Buffalo backfield carries.
  • Through the first six weeks, C.J. Spiller 49.6 percent of the backfield rushing attempts, Jackson 37.9 percent.

Trust: Sammy Watkins

Bust: Latavius Murray, Derek Carr

Reasonable Return: Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller, Kyle Orton. Mychal Rivera

 

Colts @ Cowboys
2.5 Spread -2.5
26.5 Team O/U 29
70.2 Plays/Gm 63.7
63.4 Opp. Plays/Gm 61.0
38.2% Rush % 49.6%
61.8% Pass % 50.4%
40.6% Opp. Rush % 41.9%
59.4% Opp. Pass % 58.1%

 

  • DeMarco Murray is the only back in the league with 15 or more carries in every game this season.
  • Tony Romo is averaging 0.59 passing points per attempt, behind only Aaron Rodgers at 0.62 points per attempt.
  • Romo’s 7.3 percent touchdown rate is also second to only Rodgers and is a career high.
  • Dez Bryant has 10 multiple receiving touchdown games since 2012, most in the league.
  • Bryant has caught at least one touchdown in 26 of his past 38 games.
  • Bryant has scored on 10.4 percent of his targets, second only to Torrey Smith (11.0 percent).
  • Dan Herron is averaging 0.61 points per attempt compared to Trent Richardson at 0.45.
  • Herron’s past four weekly finishes have been RB20, RB11, RB19 and RB29.
  • Reggie Wayne is last in points per target (1.25).
  • Dwayne Allen ranks first in points per reception (4.0) and Coby Fleener third (3.5) of all tight ends with at least 40 targets.

Trust: Dez Bryant, Demarco Murray, Tony Romo, Andrew Luck

Bust: Trent Richardson, Jason Witten

Reasonable Return: Dan Herron, Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener, T.Y. Hilton

 

Seahawks @ Cardinals
-9.5 Spread 9.5
23 Team O/U 13.5
63.7 Plays/Gm 61.6
57.2 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.1
51.2% Rush % 41.4%
48.8% Pass % 58.6%
43.3% Opp. Rush % 37.3%
56.7% Opp. Pass % 62.7%

 

  • The Cardinals have scored a touchdown on just 10 of 87 drives without Carson Palmer.
  • Seattle has held eight of the past nine quarterbacks they’ve faced under 200 yards passing and the past five under 150 yards.
  • The Seahawks are the first defense to hold five straight teams to less than 150 yards of passing since the 2011 Texans.
  • Over that stretch, they’ve faced the fewest the pass attempts (110) in the league and have allowed the fewest yards per attempt (4.9 Y/A).
  • Russell Wilson has just five games completing 20 passes or more, tied for 23rd in the league.
  • Wilson averages 12.6 passing points per game, 19th for all quarterbacks.
  • Mashawn Lynch averages 2.02 points per target, fourth highest of all backs with 40 or more targets.
  • Kerwynn Williams has a touch on 62 percent of his snaps over the past two weeks.

Trust: Russell Wilson

Bust: Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, John Brown

Reasonable Return: Marshawn Lynch, Doug Baldwin, Kerwynn Williams

 

Broncos @ Bengals
-3.5 Spread 3.5
25.5 Team O/U 22
66.4 Plays/Gm 63.3
65.1 Opp. Plays/Gm 67.5
42.1% Rush % 48.1%
57.9% Pass % 51.9%
32.2% Opp. Rush % 42.5%
67.8% Opp. Pass % 57.5%

 

  • Cincinnati is allowing 142.1 rushing yards per game at home this season, 5th most in the league.
  • C.J. Anderson leads the league in attempts (109) and rushing yards (478) over the past four weeks.
  • Demaryius Thomas has 14 red zone targets over the past four weeks, most in the league.
  • Peyton Manning has 28.3 points over the past three weeks combined. He has four games scoring 28 points this season, tied for most in the league.
  • Cincinnati has held five of the past eight quarterbacks they’ve faced to single digit scoring.
  • Over the past three weeks, Denver has a 30.8 percent touchdown rate in the red zone (26th) which has led to kicking 11 field goals after attempting 13 over the first 11 games.
  • Since week 9 (first game without Gio Bernard), Jeremy Hill leads the NFL in rushing with 682 yards.
  • In the first half last week, Hill had 17 touches to seven for Bernard.

Trust: Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, C.J. Anderson, Peyton Manning

Bust: Julius Thomas, Gio Bernard

Reasonable Return: A.J. Green, Jeremy Hill, Andy Dalton

 

Context Key:

Trust = Set him in your lineups this week

Bust = Player to underperform season average

Reasonable Return = On par with seasonal average

 

*Statistics provided by ProFootballFocus, Pro-Football-Reference, NFLData.com. All Vegas Lines Provided by 5Dimes