Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10.5)
Of the five games this week featuring underdogs getting a touchdown worth of points at home, none has a greater disparity in talent — the Patriots and Jets are exempt from this conversation due to division familiarity — than the Packers and Buccaneers. Green Bay is one of the best teams in the National Football League, and just suffered it’s first loss since Halloween, while Tampa Bay is likely beginning negotiations with the potential top pick in next year’s draft.
This wide range of talent suggests that this game shouldn’t be close. But, given the general parameters we tend to follow — ‘obvious picks’ between teams seemingly worlds apart and home underdogs receiving so many points — the Buccaneers are poised to beat the spread.
After all, we have these rules set in place in order to allow the numbers to speak for themselves. Like a team entering the playoffs amid quarterback controversy, we stick with the methods that have proven successful and ‘dance with the one we brought to the party.’
Green Bay wins by ten, but Tampa Bay sneaks under the line and beats the spread.
