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Daily Fantasy Baseball DFS Value Update and Lineup – May 5

Michael Clifford breaks down every MLB game to find the best daily fantasy baseball value picks.

Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Zack Greinke
Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Zack Greinke

Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Zack Greinke. Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.

First things first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas line are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.

Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.

With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favourable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.

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These lineups are made with 50/50 and heads-up games in mind.

Minnesota Twins (Gibson) at Cleveland Indians (McAllister)

The Kyle Gibson Regression – which is what’s been happening his last couple of outings – could very well continue. Also, it doubles as a great alt-rock band name. Either way, I’m not touching him today. I’m not very keen on the Twins against McAllister either. McAllister performed very well against them last year and without Joe Mauer potentially, there’s not a whole lot to get excited about.

Jason Kubel (OF) – $4079

Zach McAllister makes an interesting name today because he’s one of nine pitchers that are all between the $16K-$18K range. He’s probably in the top half of those names so he’s an acceptable pitching target for today.

Lonnie Chisenhall (3B) – $4587

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