In Fantasy Football Trust or Bust, we will focus on who we deem as trustworthy starts and pepper in a few sits for your Points Per Reception (PPR) leagues.
TRUST
Riley Cooper vs DET
Now that the bye weeks are over, many owners have likely discarded Cooper, simply citing that his regression was inevitable. In his past two weeks, he’s totaled only six receptions for 85 yards after notching 241 yards and five touchdowns weeks 9-10. He’s still a big time playmaker on one of the hottest offenses going, and he’s still amassing a solid number of targets (13 in the past two weeks).
This week he draws a Lions secondary that has been extremely giving to receivers all season, especially number two options in the passing game. They’ve allowed at least 75 receiving yards or a touchdown in ten consecutive games to wideouts that weren’t leading their team in receiving coming into the game.
This also sets up for a massive amount of volume from the Eagles passing attack. The Lions are allowing only 40.5 rushing yards per game over the past six weeks, and have allowed only 40 or fewer in four straight. Opposing teams are running the football on only 36.7 percent of their offensive plays when facing Detroit (third fewest in the league). The Eagles should be putting it in the air often, and Copper will be their best matchup going all day long.
Carson Palmer vs STL
Palmer’s real football performance may have come back to what we’re accustomed to seeing from him this past weekend in Philadelphia, but his fake football dividends paid out just fine. Despite throwing two interceptions (his first turnovers in three weeks) and losing a fumble, he still managed 18 point fantasy points for the third consecutive week. Palmer has now thrown for 300 yards or more in three straight games and multiple touchdowns five weeks in a row. His strong fantasy output (11 touchdowns/ four interceptions since week seven) has made him capable of supporting two weekly top 20 receivers over the same stretch.
He shouldn’t have any problem keeping things moving this weekend as the Cards host the Rams. St. Louis has been shredded by the opposing passing attack the past three weeks, allowing 275 passing yards or more each week, including two games of 350 plus yards to quarterbacks. Not only did Palmer himself touch up this same defense for 327 yards and two scores in week one, but the Rams are also one of the worst road defenses when it comes to defending the pass, allowing over 50 more yards passing when traveling (275 yards per game, fifth most of any defense on the road).
Marshawn Lynch @ SF
Lynch has always been a steady PPR performer due to his solid weekly rushing floor, but this year he is having the best receiving season of his career. His 27 receptions are only one behind the second most he’s ever had in a season and his 234 receiving yards are only 66 behind his best career mark.
No back has reached 80 rushing yards against the 49ers in the past seven weeks, but Lynch is a 49er killer. San Francisco has only allowed five total 100 yard rushers since 2010, and three of those have been to Lynch. In his past four games facing their NFC West rival, the Seahawks bulldozer has rushed for at least 98 yards in every game to go with six total touchdowns, including three in their week two meeting earlier this season.
Steven Jackson @ GB
In what has been pretty much a lost season for the Falcons and Jackson himself, he has shown a bit of a fantasy pulse the past two weekends. In his first four games after missing five weeks with a quad injury, Jackson totaled only 115 rushing yards on 44 carries (2.6 YPC). The two weeks since haven’t been exactly shades of Jackson circa 2009, but he has 39 attempts for 147 yards (3.8 YPC) with three rushing touchdowns.
That amount of volume could go a long way this weekend as Green Bay is getting completely destroyed on the ground over the past six weeks. They’ve allowed over 100 yards rushing in five of their past six games after allowing over one hundred yards rushing only once over their first six games, and three games of 200 yards or more in three of their past four. Six separate backs have rushed for 90 or more yards against them over their past five games with six touchdowns on the ground.
Delanie Walker @ DEN
Walker left last Sunday with concussion symptoms, and you never want to assume anything with that type of injury,so this is contingent on him being active this Sunday. If you’re a streamer, or have been playing the Jordan Reed or Julius Thomas inactive game, Walker sets up as fine play if he goes, so it’s a situation worth monitoring.
Even in only playing a quarter last week, Walker has been the third highest scoring tight end since week 10, the same time that Ryan Fitzpatrick started playing significantly for the second time this season. Over that stretch, he is third in receptions (20), eight in yardage (204) with two touchdowns.
Even with the Titans having one of the league’s best pass defenses, Denver should force them to throw plenty to keep pace, and tight ends have been brutal on the Broncos this season. In ten of their 12 games this season, Denver has allowed at least 50 receiving yards or a touchdown to the opposing teams’ starting tight end.
BUST
Cam Newton @ NO
Newton really just may be a second half hero on a regular basis. After finishing as a top ten option in only three of his first nine games, Newton has reeled off three consecutive top seven weeks in a row. He’s thrown multiple scores in two if those three, but his rushing production has really jumped up, giving him a significant boost. Over the past three weeks, he’s rushed for over 50 yards in each game and added two scores on the ground.
That additional boost is nice for owners, but it’s hard to have to rely on that to carry you in a must win week. That’s what owners will be forced to do with him in their lineups this weekend because Carolina heads into New Orleans to face a Saints team that was just embarrassed on the road in Seattle on primetime.
At home, the Saints have been a different animal, allowing the second fewest passing yardage (181 yards) per game in the league. The only quarterbacks to post top 12 weeks against them (Jay Cutler and Russell Wilson) were both on the road, where they are 3-3 on season. They’ve allowed only one quarterback (Matt Ryan in week one) to throw for more than 250 yards against them at home, while holding three others under 190 yards passing for the game. They aren’t surrendering touchdowns either, as only Ryan and Colin Kaepernick have thrown multiple touchdowns at New Orleans this season. Unless Newton totals big rushing numbers, he’ll be a bust in your lineup this weekend.
Antonio Brown vs MIA
Brown enters week 14 with 85 receptions, one more than Pierre Garcon and is the leagues fifth leading receiver with 1,103 yards. He has at least five receptions in every game this season, with nine games of 70 or more yards receiving, including five of his past six games.
If there’s ever a week to fade the leading pass catcher in the NFL, this may be the week. Miami has been a nightmare matchup for wide receivers from a fantasy perspective. For the season, the Dolphins have allowed only one wide receiver to score (Aaron Dobson) and have allowed only A.J. Green to surpass 70 receiving yards in a game since week five.
Per Pro Football Focus, all three of Miami’s cornerbacks rank inside the top 15 in terms of QB rating surrendered on passes thrown into their coverage. Brent Grimes ranks sixth with a rating of 62.6 (with four interceptions) allowed, Noah Carroll ranks tenth at 66.1 (two INT) and slot corner Jimmy Wilson ranks 15th at 67.9. Forget just one man shutting down Brown like many thought Joe Haden might, it may take an entire team effort.
Chris Johnson @ DEN
After having one top 24 week over the season’s first six weeks, Johnson has rebounded strong, posting four top ten finishes over his past six games and five as a top 24 back. He’s gone over the century mark rushing only once this year, but is averaging 103 yards from scrimmage of his past six with a touchdown in four games. His receiving has also picked up, catching 22 passes over those six weeks, double from the 11 he had to start the season.
He’ll need that receiving boost this week, because Denver’s offense forces teams to throw heavy (see Delanie Walker). Teams throw the ball 63.1 percent of the time against the Broncos, leaving little room for Johnson to do any damage rushing the football. When teams do you run it against them, they are allowing only 3.9 YPC, ninth best in the league.
Full Disclosure From Week 13
|
Player |
PPR PTS |
RESULT |
|
Josh McCown |
22.2 |
QB6 |
|
CJ Spiller |
23.7 |
RB6 |
|
Le’Veon Bell |
26.6 |
RB4 |
|
Michael Floyd |
20.9 |
WR9 |
|
BUST |
||
|
Drew Brees |
7.8 |
QB29 |
|
LeSean McCoy |
16.5 |
RB17 |
|
Vincent Jackson |
10.6 |
WR36 |
|
SEASON RESULTS |
W |
L |
|
TRUST |
37 |
28 |
|
BUST |
30 |
17 |
Stats used were provided from ProFootballFocus, Pro-Football-Reference, NFLData.com.
