When I construct my fantasy lineups, throughout the DFS sports, two common things end up being my baseline for the path my roster takes. The top value plays and the highest ceiling superstar studs. In this article, I will attempt to attack these two prevalent fantasy focus points in NBA DFS.
I will list the players match up vs position for the last week because that is the most applicable to me, with the enormous amount of turnover in players and rotations from week to week in the NBA. For shooting guards and small forwards I list the DvP as SG,SF because there is a lot of defensive switches on the wings and the teams do not always match up SG vs SG and SF vs SF. For power forwards and centers I list the DvP PF,C so I get a general sense of how difficult a test the opponents front court is as a whole. I actually will use the PF,C DvP to help me for point guard selection as well to see how driving to the hoop will go for the PG, but I will not be listing those DvP’s under each point guard’s section.
After that I like to see how the match up went last time and try to delve a little deeper and figure out what has changed since then and the effects on the game script. I will attempt to provide thoughts on the most convoluted situations, particularly those with moving pieces.
Note: Superior value may arise later in the day with injury news, as well as shifting the best high end options, as it commonly does, but as of being written, these are my favorite plays.
AWAY @ HOME – Total | Line
PHI @ CHA – 206.5 | CHA -15
Ceiling:
($7.6)Kemba Walker
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 36.1 Fpts in 36 Mins
You want Kemba at home, and his price has dropped, and he’s facing Ish. *fireworks* Kemba is one of my top tournament options tonight.
($8.1K)Nicolas Batum
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 32.6 Fpts in 35.3 Mins
Batum is in a good spot tonight, but the hike in price makes him hard to play, but
($6.5K)Robert Covington
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 28.9 Fpts in 28.4 Mins
Update: Jerami Grant is playing downgrading Covington very slightly.
Bob is a much harder sell at his elevated price point than when he was in the $5K range but he is averaging 15 FGA due to all the injuries and 9.5 rebounds in his last 4 due to playing mostly power forward with said injuries predominantly in the front court.
DAL @ DET – 205.5 | DET -5.5
Deron Williams not expected to play
Value:
($5.3K)J.J. Barea
With DWill continuing to be out, Barea will run the offense. He has 40 Fpt upside as he has recently shown, and should be able to succeed in this matchup. That said Reggie Jackson can be a pesky defender at times, so there is risk with the play.
($5.7K)Marcus Morris
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game, 32.4 Fpts in 39.3 Mins
You could say I have a thing for Marcus Morris because I write him up every time he is on the slate. I just have a thing for guys that crush value every single time out. Dallas is playing no defense at this point in the season.
BKN @ NY – 203.5 | NY -5
Thaddeus Young may rest on the back to back and that brings Thomas Robinson back into consideration as a lead punt play at $4K.
Note: Carmelo has Rambis to give the stars less run down the stretch, so i’ll avoid these guys for now.
Ceiling:
($7.6K)Brook Lopez
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 42.7 Fpts in 33.6 Mins
Brolo vs Rolo yolo. It’s the old brother on brother narrative. Brook has scored 20 or more points in 8 matchups in a row vs his brother, according to @fasteddiefear.
ORL @ MLW – 208 | MLW -3
Jerryd Bayless is out.
Ceiling:
($9.2K)Giannis Antetokounpo
With Ennis losing usage, he is still priced too high.
2 games, 35.8 Fpts in 35 Mins
Value:
($3.7K)Tyler Ennis
I’ve rostered Ennis before and been very disappointed, but those situations were very different. Ennis has been running the point a lot lately, stealing some of Giannis Antetokounpo’s production and playing 23 and 28 mins in the last two games Bayless was in. I expect 30-35 mins in a high total game and at $3.7K, he could easily go 10x tonight.
CLE @ ATL – 206.5 | ATL -1.5
Ceiling:
($6.8K)Kevin Love:
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game, 42.2 Fpts in 31.2 Mins
As per this whole season, Fan Duel is taking time to bring up the prices. Love is severely under priced in this matchup. Watch out for players sitting.
TOR @ MEM – 198 | TOR -5
MIN @ UTA – 195 | UTA -9
Ceiling:
($6.9K)Gordon Hayward
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 26.5 Fpts in 36.7 Mins
It would appear this is a perfect spot for Gordon Hayward. Wings vs Minnesota are $$$, and his price is still low due to injury and poor play. He will be low owned on such a large slate. I am concerned that he didn’t perform well in this matchup in ample minutes three times this year, but I think he is a great GPP play.
MIA @ SAC – 212.5 | MIA -7.5
DeMarcus Cousins will not play tonight due to suspension(technicals).
($8.7K)Hassan Whiteside
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game, 30 Fpts in 18.4 Mins
It’s gonna be hard to fade Whiteside vs a DeMarcus Cousins-less Sacramento squad. I can’t picture him getting less than 7 blocks 15 rebounds today.
Value:
WCS and Koufus are in play, but are in bad spots and are unlikely to hit their ceiling.
($4.9K)Willie Caulie-Stein
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game, 18 Fpts in 22.5 Mins
($3.9K)Kosta Koufus
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game 13.4 Fpts in 24.7 Mins
BOS @ GS – 221.5 | GS -12
Ceiling:
($10.4K)Stephen Curry
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game, 46.9 Fpts in 46.9 Mins
($8.6K)Draymond Green
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 67.2 Fpts in 49.6 Mins
His output last time was due to double overtime, but he should succeed well enough with a normal allotment of minutes.
($7.3K)Klay Thompson
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: didn’t play
He is underpriced still, and can succeed easily in this spot.
WAS @ PHO – 214 | WAS -7
Ceiling:
($7K)Devin Booker
This Season vs Opp. Avg.:
FGA FGA FGA. Booker is on a list I like to look at frequently, players averging 20+ FGA in the last 2 weeks. He just keeps shooting, and we know he can get fire emoji hot, especially vs the Wizard’s who are known to surrender points to wings.
($5.9K)Bradley Beal
This Season vs Opp. Avg.:
Here’s another guy who is shooting a ton, and he faces off with Booker. They are both poor defenders, but potent on the offensive side, and I like pairing these two in a lineup together and hoping it shoots out.
Just Give me the Damn Plays:
Top Ceiling:
Kemba Walker
Draymond Green
Top Value:
Tyler Ennis
Thomas Robinson(If Thad sits)
J.J. Barea
Lines as of 10 AM
Featured image credit: By photo taken by flickr user ReneS (flickr) [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
