Week 5 felt really good. It was one of those weeks I was working on my daily fantasy football cash game lineup right up until lock and I made a few critical last minute decisions that were the proper calls and led to a strong week 5 performance. I had made ten cash lineups I felt were pretty good and two which were very strong (I only roll out one). I made the decision to avoid Jarvis Landry and Julian Edelman in cash and made sure that I fit Demarco Murray and Antonio Brown in. It was a very popular play last week to pay down for Terrance West, DeAndre Washington, and Jerick McKinnon(who I had) at RB.
Maybe we should discuss McKinnon, as the DFS landscape was torn in it’s usual fashion, with half of us tilting, and the other half calling the opposing fish. Was McKinnon a good play? He ended up with 20 carries and 1 catch on 3 targets in the passing game, and most of us knew that Matt Asiata would be getting the goal line work. Houston was a low ranked rushing defense that was without their star defensive lineman JJ Watt. He was $4k. I had him marked down with a floor of 20 touches and 10 DK points, which he didn’t reach, but was there another play in that price range that got 23 touches in a positive game script and good matchup? No, there wasn’t. McKinnon could have easily hit 25-30 fantasy points and then where would we be? The tilters and fish name callers roles would be reversed, but what would we really learn? The point I am making is the thought process of putting McKinnon in a lineup of any format was correct, and we cannot be completely results based as situations like this will arise again and again. If we made a well thought out decision, where the workload, matchup, and game script are there, you have to just chalk it to the game.
This article is mostly tailored to DraftKings.com pricing
($FanDuel Price/$DraftKings Price) vs Opponent | Spread, Game Total
Cash Game Plays
($7,800/$5,300)Tyrod Taylor vs SF | -7.5 BUF, 44.5
I feel like DraftKings is my friend, we hang out on the weekends, and they keep rewarding me on my friendship with these extremely cheap quarterbacks in great matchups. While that statement may carry some truth, $5,300 is far too cheap for a talented QB that runs the ball vs a bottom 5 defense in the league. Taylor is averaging 16.1 fantasy points per game which includes averages of 1.2 passing touchdowns and 33.6 rushing yards per game which adds nicely to his floor. The 49ers are a much weaker unit on the road, averaging more than double as many points allowed while away. Over the last two seasons Tyrod Taylor has averaged 3.5 more DraftKings points at home as well. It’s a double whammy. Let’s also not forget how teams playing against the 49ers run more plays than they typically do due to the fast pace of the 49er offense.
($9,300/$7,900)Le’Veon Bell @ MIA | -7.5 PIT, 47.5
Bell(e)s last name is french for beauty, and it perfectly describes his running style. The patience, cadence, and elegance he displays whilst dancing on the field is a miracle to watch, and even the talented New York Jet’s front got served. I bet he has a mean two step. Having 23 and 29 touches in his first two games back respectively while amassing 25.8 and 24.4 fpts, he faces the Miami unit that has allowed the most rushing yards per game at 150.8. This is where you start your cash games.
($9,700/$10,000)Antonio Brown @ MIA | -7.5 PIT, 47.5
Yes, having Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown in my cash game picks may be very vanilla, but cash game plays don’t need to be hawt taeks. You should just play the safest high floor and ceiling plays in your cash games, and the Steeler’s top two skill position guys fit the bill. While I would usually like to target the Steeler’s offense at home, this Miami defense is just putrid. At $10K he will be extremely hard to fit in, especially with less value running backs to run out there this week, but I feel like after AB you have to go pretty far down at WR to find a guy you love at his price. Brown is averaging 89.4 yards per game, a touchdown, and 23.5 fpts. Miami is allowing the 5th most fantasy points to WRs in the league.
($5,300/$2,900)Charles Clay @ MIA | -7.5 BUF, 44.5
While I would love to recommend Greg Olsen here, I doubt you will be able to fit him and feel great about your lineup, especially if you squeeze Bell and Brown in, which I recommend. Clay has 9.7 and 12.3 fantasy points with 5 and 7 targets over his last two, after facing the overall stingy defenses of the 85 Bears week 1 reincarnate Raven’s unit, the Cardinals, and the Patriots. These are not stellar numbers, but with the aforementioned increase in plays run vs San Francisco, and Sammy Watkins still on IR, i can see those numbers rising and think Clay is a good bet to get in the endzone with 3 red zone targets on the year. Play Charles Clay over the odd fantasy favorite Will Tye at the same price tag.
GPP Plays
($8,500/$7,900)Drew Brees vs CAR | OFF(Cam status)
Drew Brees at home in the dome is certainly a greater spot than Matt Ryan at home, and we saw what the Falcons did on offense vs the young Carolina secondary. The Panthers present the classic situation of a funnel defense. While they are top 10 in terms of least rushing yards allowed they are bottom 10 in pass yards allowed. Add that together with the likelihood Carolina will be putting a bunch of points on the board vs the weak New Orleans secondary(it is looking like Cam will play) and you have an old style western shootout. Drew Brees is guaranteed to attempt over 40 passes and I expect to be the top play at QB this week in terms of raw points.
($8,800/$7,700)Demarco Murray | -7 TEN, 43.5
He just keeps getting it done and has another fantastic matchup vs the Cleveland Browns. Murray has averages of 23.4 touches and 24.5 fantasy points, being the most consistent RB performer this year. While I think he is a great cash game play, his ceiling is insane in this matchup where the Titans offense should be able to move the ball and present a ton of scoring opportunities. While this is not a super sneaky play, he has a ton of upside in this spot and is under owned each week.
($6,900/$5,900)Will Fuller vs IND | -3 HOU, 46
The fantasy populace is down on the breakout rookie WR as well as the rest of Houston offense, which should leave him low owned. Indianapolis is a very weak defense overall, but they do have one strong point, and that’s shadow corner Vontae Davis. I expect the Colts to attach Vontae to DeAndre Hopkins for most of the game, leaving Fuller to do work vs the weaker corners. This will lead to Fuller leading the team in targets and as always, we love how he gets most of his looks down the field.
($5,600/$3,500)Coby Fleener vs CAR | OFF(Cam status)
Coby Fleener is a boom or bust play this week. When you are trying to find the guy who will get the majority of the output in the Saints’ passing game it can be difficult with how Brees likes to spread the ball around. Fleener’s targets have been jumping around being 4, 8, 11, and 5 with them playing only 4 games due to a week 5 bye. He has scored fantasy points in the range of 1.6 – 26.9, but would it really surprise you if he had a 6-100-2 line in this spot? It also wouldn’t surprise me if he caught 3 for 45 yards, but the upside is clearly there.
Featured Image Credit: By Kelly Bailey [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
