Now that almost every team has played one-quarter of its season, we can begin to trust the statistics a bit more for our daily fantasy football plays. The Vikings’ defense is as good as their numbers show, while the Panthers are still a liability through the air.
As always, the matchups are reviewed against the expected flow of a game, but the two can now work in tandem to help produce a better picture.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 3 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Luke May is Sporfolio’s NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as the expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions
Luke’s DFS Take: Right away, we jump into a game that has a relatively low amount of fantasy targets. As good as the Eagles have played, their success has not come from any one player posting huge numbers on a weekly basis. Carson Wentz has been solid, but his focus on shorter throws has limited his numbers, somewhat. Philadelphia’s defense has played well and, while it should prevent Matthew Stafford from having a big day, it is also facing a solid offense from Detroit. Ultimately, I’m staying away.
Mario’s DFS Take: The obvious value play would come from quarterback Carson Wentz in the expectation that Philadelphia returns from its bye week and continues its torrid pace. I’m not as high on the Eagles, this week, as I think a potential upset is in the works for Detroit. For the Lions to pull it off, it would likely take a strong defensive effort. I’d be comfortable starting Detroit’s defense, with only running back Ryan Mathews from either offenses. Despite the Lions giving up the tenth-fewest yards in the league, they are comparatively bad against the run – third-most rushing-yards-per-attempt.
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins
Luke’s DFS Take: So far, neither offense has impressed. Both quarterbacks have struggled and neither deserves consideration in a matchup where the defenses are, at least, decent. Therefore, each team produces only one target. Tennessee’s DeMarco Murray has been dominant since the start of the season, and faces a Miami defense that has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards in the league. Miami’s Jarvis Landry is the only Dolphins player consistently stepping up and receiving the lion’s share of targets. The success of either team largely rests on Murray or Landry, respectively, so use accordingly.
Mario’s DFS Take: This is the week that Miami’s offense finally puts it together. Returning home with extended rest after a nationally-televised embarrassment, the Dolphins will face a team with a losing record for only the second time, this year. Indeed, Tennessee’s defense is statistically good – 14th in points and yards allowed – but it is also beatable – the Titans have allowed a passing touchdown to each of their last three opponents. Amazingly enough, the top wide receivers for each of Tennessee’s opponents – Stefon Diggs, Golden Tate, and Amari Cooper – have been held out of the end zone. Jarvis Landry takes a slight hit, but his 45 targets – second in the league – are too much to ignore, and he has received at least 10 passes in each of the four games, this year. The Dolphins will not breakout without him.
Click here to sign up for Sporfolio to see the rest of Mario Mergola’s NFL picks against the point spread and DFS picks. Mergola finished with the highest total of correct NFL picks against the spread for the past two seasons – tracked by NFLPickwatch, and finished 2015 with an accuracy of 60.53% for his confidence picks.
Featured Image Credit: By Tech. Sgt. Aaron Oelrich (DVIDS) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons