Race Track: Michigan International Speedway
Length: 2 mile
Type: D shaped Tri oval
We’re back this week with another exciting race after a great showing at Bristol. I had Harvick as a must play in my article last week in cash games, and he ended up winning! Hopefully that was a strategy you employed. Here we are at Michigan, which is a fairly wide track, with slightly steeped banking. There will be more passing opportunities here, as typical at Michigan, especially with the lower down force package. There will be multiple cautions likely and probably some lead changes. Contrary to the DFS strategy at Bristol, this week you’ll want to be focusing on finishing position and place differential. You can use practice times to get a good feel on how the drivers will perform this week.
High End Picks
I tried to find reasons to fade Joey Logano this week, because the pole driver is always chalk, but everything points to him being a good play. I think he could be your one dominator play in your lineup, while your other spots are filled with place differential guys. While there will only be 200 laps, so dominator points will not be a main factor this week, he has the potential to lead 50-100. He had the 3rd best first practice time and has an average driver rating as 120.5 at Michigan in his last 5. Logano also averages a 5th place finish here over his last 5. Oh yeah, he also won at Michigan earlier this year. Lock and load Joey Logano in GPPs and cash games.
($9,900)Martin Truex Jr.
I think this is my favorite GPP driver this week. Truex ran the fastest in first practice of all drivers and is starting in 14th. While Michigan may not be his specialty, this is a course that provides enough passing opportunities and Truex is second in NASCAR this season in quality pass percentage. This is too far back for a driver of his quality to be starting, especially with how fast he has been running this week. Truex has the 3rd best driver rating this season and is sure to be on the move.
Keselowski averages a finish of 6 in his last 5 races at Michigan. He has the 4th best quality pass percentage in 2016 and is starting in 18th. That is too far back for a racer of his caliber. He also averages an 8.25 finish in his last 8 races here, which shows a place differential value.
Mears is an incredible value starting 28th. He is great at these large oval courses and averaged a 22.88 finish in his last 8 2 mile courses. At a near $6K price tag, if he gains 6 places and ends up in 22nd per his average finish which I think he will exceed, the 28DK points will be plenty, especially with what lineup possibilities that unlocks for you. I expect him to surpass that finishing position.
Menard is starting 20th and will be a great place differential play in cash games and GPPs. He averaged a finish of 9.25 over his last 8 2 mile races and if he can perform up to that standard, he will provide plenty of DraftKings points to pay off his cheap price tag.
Greg Biffle has 4 wins here and is starting 22nd. The upside for place differential is immense. He has a 100.6 average driver rating here in his last 23 races at Michigan International Speedway. He also averages a 12.8 finish at Michigan in the same span. Biffle is a supreme value this week for cash games and GPPs.
Matt Dulcan is a top 100 ranked NASACAR DFS player on rotogrinders.com