MLB DFS Plays for 6/11/16

Saturday begins with an exceptionally early afternoon game that is likely not included in most daily fantasy baseball slates. Afterwards, the rest of the league splits almost perfectly throughout the remainder of the night.

Currently, we are using xFIP and wOBA simply to compare one pitcher’s performance against another – especially against opposite-handed hitters. We aren’t using these numbers for calculation. To help with some calculations, we have assumed that each hitter and pitcher has played at least one game. Each pitcher was assigned an innings total relative to his average projection.

Check the starting lineups and weather reports prior to making any plays, as these change without notice.

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Projected Low-Scoring Games

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants – After Johnny Cueto and Clayton Kershaw dazzled hitters on Friday night, it is a slight risk to expect that bats will be quieted in the encore. Jeff Samardzija and Scott Kazmir have a tall task, but both are positioned to contribute to a pitcher’s duel – especially in a ballpark that suppresses power. With San Francisco sitting as one of the most difficult teams in the league to strike out, Jeff Samardzija gains the edge over the comparatively more strikeout-prone Dodgers.

Targets: Jeff Samardzija, then Scott Kazmir

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates – Both Carlos Martinez and Francisco Liriano hit a rough patch after hot starts, but only Martinez has emerged. Liriano has his opportunity on Saturday, as the two pitchers – both with high strikeout rates – square off against one another in an extreme pitcher’s park. Liriano has the added benefit of facing a rather left-handed-heavy lineup, but both arms should deliver on Saturday.

Targets: Carlos Martinez and Francisco Liriano

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Projected High-Scoring Games

New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers – Again. For the third consecutive day, the hitter-friendly ballpark of Milwaukee should produce runs. So far, the first two games of the series delivered a total of ten runs. Saturday brings yet another potential slugfest, as Logan Verrett is thrust back into the Mets’ rotation. Wily Peralta’s 6.79 ERA suggests that both offenses will finally thrive.

Targets: New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers Hitters

San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies – In the least-surprising projection of the day, the Padres and Rockies are expected to deliver a high-scoring contest on Saturday. The two teams contributed on Friday, as expected, although it took a late-game surge by San Diego for there to be enough runs to justify the use of hitters. Colorado’s Tyler Chatwood has been too good to overload hitters against him, but San Diego tends to not miss opportunities to put up runs in Colorado. San Diego’s Erik Johnson will be making his debut with his new team, and Rockies hitters should welcome him with open arms by dismantling him.

Targets: San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies Hitters

Undervalued Plays

Arizona Diamondbacks Hitters – Rarely does Jose Fernandez get targeted from the opposite side of his matchup, but such is the case on Saturday. Fernandez has been unstoppable, of late – a 0.66 ERA over his last six starts – but a shift to hitter-friendly Arizona suggests that his run might, at least, slow down. Fernandez’s outstanding numbers take a slight hit on the road, and the ballpark combines with a natural regression for a buying opportunity of Arizona’s bats.

Houston Astros Hitters – Chris Archer may have finally figured out whatever was plaguing him at the beginning of the season, but he still remains a massive threat for an implosion. Despite an undeniable improvement across the board, Archer still carries a 5.48 ERA over his last four starts. Houston’s lineup is still dangerous, and buying hitters with the expectation of another down day by Archer is advised.

Photo Credit: By Keith Allison on Flickr (Originally posted to Flickr as “Adrian Gonzalez”) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

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Mario Mergola
Mario Mergola is a writer, avid sports fan, former ESPN Radio producer, husband, and father who specializes in finding the hidden gems of the less-explored option. Follow @MarioMergola