Welcome to Stack the Deck, where we focus on the key players on the 1/5 NHL DraftKings slate, and determine whether they should be played with a teammate, or ridden individually. Stacking is a common tactic in NHL, with linemates and power play units staying relatively stable throughout the course of a game, and to a smaller extent, a season. Here are a few players I am targeting on Tuesday’s eight-game slate, and my thoughts on who to play with them in order to stack the deck in your favor.
Stats are gathered from War-On-Ice.com and Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com
Player Matchups are gathered from HockeyViz.com
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Happy New Year folks! After a week break to celebrate the holidays, including a weekend out of town, I am itching to get back into the NHL swing of things. This Tuesday slate features some nice sized GPPs, including a $3 game with $4,000 to first place, which would look nice in anyone’s bankroll. Let’s explore some of the best options to target to beat the field and bring home some cash!
Target: Tyler Seguin (C) – Dal (@ NYR) – $8,600
For the ultra-elite of the NHL, the best time to target them, at least for tournament purposes, is after a couple of bad games. They didn’t suddenly become bad NHL players, you know? After a complete dud against New Jersey (which no one should be targeting for DFS purposes anyways, they play the slowest pace in the league and it isn’t very close) where he put up half a point on DK with only one shot attempted all game, he disappointed yet again in a prime matchup with the Islanders, and watched as his team put up 5 goals and still lost. All was not lost in that game, because he still managed 6 shot attempts in 19 minutes of TOI. His 1.5 DKPt night may look bad, but it showed great signs of things to come. Playing on the team that I project to generate the most offense tonight (which is not the hottest of takes, given their season-long proficiency), expect Seguin to bounce back in a big way, all the while benefitting from a low ownership figure that is sure to be the result of a road matchup with Henrik Lundqvist and the Rangers.
Stack: Patrick Sharp (W) – $6,900
Sharp has carried the top line in the last 2 games, recording a goal in each game, while his linemates Benn and Seguin combined for a goose egg on the score sheet. He is clearly his own player, capable of playing anywhere in the lineup, as shown by his 70 point pace while bouncing around the top 3 lines in Dallas. Playing on PP1 and EV1, he has just as much upside as Benn and Seguin, but at a significant discount. His price has steadily risen over the last month, but only now is he fairly priced, going for the 8th highest salary as the 8th most productive winger on the slate. I love Sharp, Seguin, and Klingberg as a stack in this game, as King Henrik has not been his usual self, allowing 2 or more goals in each of his last 10 games, posting a .871 Sv% in that span. While the Rangers will allow him to work through it, and he will return to his outstanding form soon, I don’t think the Stars make for the greatest opponent to find your game against.
Target: Charlie Coyle (C) – Min (@ CBJ) – $3,600
Coyle is massively underpriced tonight, playing in the top 6 and PP2 for a Wild squad that takes on the Blue Jackets in a game the Wild should win easily, as the 2nd biggest favorite on the night. Coyle has been a surprising source of offense for this team, with 8 points in the team’s last 10 games. Even better is his 25 shots and 37 shot attempts over that span, clearly showing he is actively involved in the offense. Playing significant PP time and 17 minutes a night, Coyle is the kind of cap relief player you can get excited about for the production he offers at a cheap price
Stack: Jared Spurgeon (D) – $4,600
Spurgeon is the type of D-man you should prioritize, one with the ability to contribute at both ends of the ice with shots, points, and the all-important blocked shots. Ryan Suter’s D-partner is more like an understudy, but 23 minutes a night looks like a lot compared to most D-men, and the $1.3k savings, the blocked shot potential, and stacking Spurgeon with Coyle on the PP2 unit makes the 6 minute TOI difference more than worth it. Spurgeon has blossomed into a solid NHL player who is also DFS relevant, and makes for a great play against the Blue Jackets, who roll into Tuesday’s action having given up the most goals in the NHL.
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Target: Michal Neuvirth (G) – Phi (v. Mtl) – $7,200
After falling off the DFS radar, missing 5 games due to an illness, Neuvirth is back, and ready to defend his title as the best goalie in the NHL. By Sv %, Neuvirth leads the entire freaking league. For $7,200, at home, there isn’t much more to ask for, especially when the goalie across from you is none other than Ben Scrivens. I think Braden Holtby is in consideration every night, given his ability to drag the Capitals to wins they don’t deserve (as of late at least, they are still my projected SC representative from the East), but the $1k savings is too juicy to pass up, with Vegas favoring Neuvirth’s chances at the W slightly more than Holtby’s against the Bruins.
Stack: Claude Giroux AND Jakub Voracek – $6,500 + $5,900
They’re BAAAAAAAACK! The Flyers have finally decided to take Voracek out of the doghouse and reinsert him on the first line. Taking Giroux and Voracek apart was never the right move, as the two work really well together. Case in point: over the last season and a half, in the time spent on-ice together, their CF60 goes up by a full 5 shots per 60, to a figure that is equal to that of Vladimir Tarasenko’s, one of the league’s elite shot generators who plays on a very good Blues team. When they play separately, that figure drops from the top 20 all the way down to the 80-100th range, going by this season’s data. Would you rather have production akin to that of Tarasenko, or Brian Dumoulin? With these numbers focusing only on the 5v5 play, the PP upside of these two only adds to their value, making them fantastic plays. Take advantage of it before the DK algorithms rise their salaries to the levels from the beginning of the season, or even last season. Trying to find their opening night salary, I instead found a post from last season, where in November Giroux was 8,600 and Voracek was 7,200. Don’t wait too long before you start considering these guys, as their proven track record and chemistry should have them producing immediately. And before we go, here’s Ben Scrivens’, who the Flyers are slated to face in net, stat line on the season:
2-6-1 3.47 GAA 0.893 Sv%
In the AHL. He has one NHL start this season, and that didn’t go well either. Stack the deck with Flyers tonight.
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If you have any comments or questions regarding Tuesday’s NHL DFS action, you can find me on Twitter @Mattman1398. Good luck tonight, and as always:
Thanks for reading!
Featured Image Credit: By Lisa Gansky (Flickr: IMG_3214) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
