Point Guard
Shane Larkin ($4400, 17.6 USG) – The position is stacked with value tonight and it’s up to you to figure out witch 2 you like best (to pair with Westbrook, obviously). Mario Chalmers likely becomes the guy I’m on most if Mike Conley is out (illness). But you have Shaun Livingston with Curry doubtful, Patty Mills is attractive at only $3700 with no Tony Parker and George Hill is going to sit, making Ellis intriguing at point guard. The reason I’m writing up Larkin is not because I’m a huge fan or anything, it’s just that he’s the only guy I know for certain is going to be starting due to circumstances. A lot of news is going to be flooding our timelines in the next couple hours but Larkin is already a sure thing. With Jarrett Jack lost for the season, BKLN is going to give Larkin the first shot at becoming the starting PG and while the matchup against the Celtics isn’t great (best team in the league against point guards according to DvP), he’s still looking at 30+ minutes and averages 32.95 DKPTS per 36 (.91 FP per min without Jack). Also with Larkin, he’s going to be very highly owned meaning if he stinks up the joint, at least a big chunk of the ship is going down with you.
If the dominoes fall into place and all point guards become value plays, I’d rank them in this order:
- Mario Chalmers
- Patty Mills
- Shaun Livingston
- Shane Larkin
Shooting Guard
Dion Waiters ($3600, 18.6 USG) – If you haven’t already heard, Kevin Durant is out tonight which is why Russell Westbrook becomes the best overall play of the night but the rest of the OKC team get bumps in value also. As gross as it is to recommend pairing Westbrook with Waiters is, I have to. In the 6 games without KD earlier this year (11-13 to 11-22) Waiters played at least 29 min or more in all of them and hit value with ease. Now he gets to see what he can do with those extra minutes against one of the worst defending teams in the league (4th worst against SG’s according to DvP). Tonight is truly shaping up to be a stars and scrubs night, so why not roll with the most hated scrub of them all? I mean, Waiters is just a terrible NBA player. I don’t mean to be so brash but he is. In an already underwhelming NBA career, he’s having his worst year yet (9.8 PER). It’s just that the Kings are so bad defensively (bottom 5 team against every position), anytime a player sees close to 30 minutes against them, you have to take a look . . . right?
Small Forward
Joe Johnson ($4600, 17.8 USG) – Joe Johnson is also I guy that benefits a bit without Jarrett Jack. If I’m the Nets, I’m obviously going to be wanting to play through Lopez and Young more but who’s going to be a threat to score elsewhere? It makes a lot of sense to create some offense through Johnson now and with a price point that’s quite reasonable, he makes for a fine punt against a Celtics team that will be without Avery Bradley tonight (their best wing defender).
Power Forward
Trevor Booker ($4700, 13.7 USG) – Derrick Favors missed shootaround today (notable because he went through shootaround on Saturday) so I’m going to guess he either had a setback or still won’t risk it until he back to feeling 100%. Assuming he’s out, Trevor Booker makes for a fine play at PF playing about 30 min a game over his last 5 with Favors out. He’ll be matched up against a Rockets team that gives up the most fantasy points to opposing power forwards. At this point, I’ve given up on him being inserted into the starting lineup but he’s still playing starters minutes with Favors out so don’t worry about that much: think Will Barton. What worries me is his ability to perform in perfect situations. He’s had favorable matchups against PHI and POR over the last 4 games and only averaged 17.15 DKPTS in those. I can’t let those kind of performances get into my head though on a slate where value at PF is hard to find. Another name to keep an eye on is Aaron Gordon (he’s been playing about 25 minutes a game over the last week)
Center
Jeff Withey ($4300, 15.2 USG) – Another pick that hinges on Derrick Favor’s availability. Withey has earned Coach Snyder’s trust and it’s showing with his playing time. He’s filled in admirably for Rudy Gobert and Favors. Over his last 4 games as the Jazz starting center, he’s averaged 32.28 DKPTS in 30 minutes. If Favors is out, you’re getting a $4300 player for someone who should be priced around $6100. He maybe my favorite value play of the night honestly. I’d like to get word on Mike Conley soon and build around a core of Chalmers/Westbrook/Withey. But DFS is never so easy, a lot of things are going to happen over the next hour to follow closely and good luck!
