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DFS: NFL Week 11 Shootouts

Matt Dulcan examines the week 11 ownership percentage of NFL players on FanDuel to help DFS players make informed decisions for GPPs.

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Shootouts Of The Week

When targeting DFS players, one must not just target good match ups with talented players receiving good workloads, but good matchups where both teams will be scoring points voluminously. We are all in search of the holy grail each week, the shootouts. Especially in tournaments, finding these shootouts is one of the most crucial processes in taking down a GPP. This is a part of game theory and understanding and attempting to predict game script week to week. I expect these teams to have the highest likelihood of being involved in a shootout this week.

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I included some of the low ownership percentages I have from a bunch of shots in the $2 entry $250K Shot on FanDuel. These guys make for excellent tournament plays this week with their ownership levels likely to be similar on Sunday. Differentiation is key for separating yourself from the pack.

Guaranteed Gunslingers
I feel very confident that these games will be high scoring competitive contests.

Oakland Raiders @ Detroit Lions
The 48.5 over/under is the highest of the week and the Raiders are 1 point favorites so Vegas expects this to be high scoring and close. Always trust Vegas. Wait, don’t use that motto in Vegas, things could get dangerous. Both defenses are bottom 10 in pass yards allowed per game.

I have a bunch of players from this game in my contest winning plays column this week: http://www.3rdown.com/?page_id=682
The reasoning on them being a good play can be found there.

Oakland Raider’s Options
Derek Carr
Michael Crabtree
Amari Cooper

Detroit Lion’s Options
Matthew Stafford – 4.7% owned in Thursday GPP
Calvin Johnson – 8% owned in Thursday GPP

Cincinnati Bengals @ Arizona Cardinals
The Bengals and Cardinals defenses in this game are competent vs the pass but both offenses are potent enough to overcome each other’s defenses. The 48 over/under is the second highest of the week, projecting a high scoring affair.

Cincinnati Bengal’s Options
Andy Dalton – 1.1% owned in Thursday GPP
A.J. Green – 3.6% owned in Thursday GPP
Tyler Eifert

Arizona Cardinal’s Options
Carson Palmer
Larry Fitzgerald – It helps John Brown is injured with a hamstring and Michael Floyd is also injured with a hammy. Pro Football Focus has this as a great matchup advantage for Larry on their wide receiver vs cornerback chart. He may see 10-15 targets with the ailments to his fellow wideouts.

Undercover Shootouts
These games may develop into shootouts and I believe they are under the radar.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Both teams have strong rushing defenses and terrible secondaries. I think the Vegas total of 45 and the 5.5 spread favoring the Eagles is off here. I expect this game to be a high scoring close affair. Take the over.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Options
Jameis Winston
Mike Evans – Will he finally hit pay dirt this week?!Philadelphia Allows the third most fantasy points to wide receivers per game.

Philadelphia Eagles Options
Mark Sanchez
Jordan Matthews
DeMarco Murray – Ryan Mathews did not practice Thursday and it does not look like he will play Sunday due to a concussion. This means Murray will get the goal line looks Mathews was receiving.

Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins
This game has the fifth highest over/under on the week and a 1 point spread favoring Dallas. Both secondaries can be targeted week to week as they are inept, although the Dolphins have had some strong defensive performances in the secondary as of late. You can bet Romo will be ready to let loose with an itchy trigger finger coming off of injury.

Dallas Cowboy’s Options
Tony Romo 2% owned in Thursday GPP
Dez Bryant 6.5% owned in Thursday GPP
Jason Witten
Darren McFadden – His price has dropped to $6,800 on FanDuel where I think he makes an excellent play. He will see softer defensive fronts with Romo manning the helm and is still going to get a ton of touches. The Dolphins surrender the second most fantasy points to half backs.

Miami Dolphin’s Options
Ryan Tannehill – 1.4% owned in Thursday GPP
Jarvis Landry

Matt Dulcan
Lines as of 11.19.15

Featured Image Credit: By Erik Drost (Flickr) [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

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