NFL Week 15 Picks: An Upset Brewing In Indy?

Denver Broncos (-4) at San Diego Chargers

If there’s one thing Denver doesn’t do well, it’s win by a large margin. At least, not enough. And not lately. Favorites in almost every game, the Broncos have a pedestrian 6-6 record against the spread when giving points. In their last four games — two home and two away — only once — Sunday Night Football in Kansas City — did the Broncos cover.

Finally, the number has been adjusted to better reflect the types of games Denver usually plays.

San Diego has lost six of its last seven games against Denver, including the playoffs. To say that the Chargers are poised and ready to correct this is an understatement. The problem, however, is that Denver – the better team, and with a two-game lead in the standings to prove it – is locked in a race for the AFC’s top seed. While a loss would make San Diego’s playoff hopes that much more difficult to realize, the Broncos are a legitimate Super Bowl contender with one potentially giant hurdle ahead – a playoff game in Foxborough. While circumstances may always change, Peyton Manning and the Broncos would obviously rather have Tom Brady and the Patriots travel to Denver. At this current moment, the Broncos have to attack with that plan in mind.

Furthermore, as well-documented as Manning’s struggles against the Patriots have been, the same could be said for his preference to indoor games and good weather. With a potentially perfect football day on the horizon in San Diego on Sunday, Manning an his top-five offense should thrive against a solid, but beatable defense – on average, allowing just over 26 points per game in its last eight games.

Denver wins by a touchdown and covers.

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