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Fantasy Football Week 15 Worksheet

Rich Hribar breaks down every game in the NFL to help owners prepare for the fantasy football playoffs.

Justin Forsett

Whether you moved on to your seasonal semi-finals or happened to run into Julio Jones or Le’Veon Bell last week, there’s still football left for daily gamers and seasonal players chasing championships. Let’s hit the full slate of the week 15 games bullet point style …

Cardinals @ Rams
4.5 Spread -4.5
18 Team O/U 21.5
61.4 Plays/Gm 60.2
63.3 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.5
40.6% Rush % 42.9%
59.4% Pass % 57.1%
37.7% Opp. Rush % 39.9%
62.3% Opp. Pass % 60.1%

 

  • The Rams have shut out back to back opponents for the first time since 1945.
  • St. Louis has allowed a touchdown on just three of their opponents past 48 drives and any score on just five of those possessions.
  • The Cardinals have scored a touchdown on just four of their past 39 drives.
  • Larry Fitzgerald has scored 16 touchdowns versus the Rams, the most versus any team in his career.
  • Andre Ellington had 101 rushing yards on 52 carries in the four prior games to Kerwynn Williams‘ 100 yards on 19 carries last week.
  • LeSean McCoy (81) and Ryan Mathews (105) are the only running backs to top 80 rushing yards versus the Rams since week 3.
  • 22.1 percent of Jared Cook‘s PPR output in his 29 games as a Ram have come in the three games facing Arizona.
  • Drew Stanton‘s 54.5 percent completion rate is only better than Michael Vick (52.9 percent) of the 41 quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts on the season.
  • Jaron Brown has been targeted on 28.2 percent of his routes the past four weeks, 9th highest at wide receiver.

Trust: Larry Fitzgerald

Bust: Tre Mason, Kerwynn Williams, Michael Floyd, John Brown

Reasonable Return: Jared Cook, Stedman Bailey, Shaun Hill

 

Packers @ Bills
-4.5 Spread 4.5
27.5 Team O/U 23
61.5 Plays/Gm 64.2
67.5 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.6
42.8% Rush % 38.7%
57.2% Pass % 61.3%
43.2% Opp. Rush % 39.8%
56.8% Opp. Pass % 60.2%

 

  • Sammy Watkins‘ 127 receiving yards last week were more than he had combined over the previous four weeks (105).
  • It was Watkins’ fourth 100-yard game on the season, a Bills record for a rookie wide receiver.
  • The 14 targets to Fred Jackson last week the most this season for a running back in a game and a career high for Jackson.
  • He became only the third player ever to have 10 receptions in a game and less 40 receiving yards.
  • Jackson has two carries of 20 or more yards on his past 303 attempts, Anthony Dixon has three this season on 89 carries.
  • Scott Chandler has been a top 6 scoring tight end in two of the past three weeks.
  • Buffalo has allowed 164.4 passing yards per game over their past seven games.
  • Jordy Nelson has seven touchdown receptions of 40 yards or longer, the most in a season since Randy Moss (10) in 1998.
  • Eddie Lacy has 100-yards from scrimmage in six consecutive games, the second longest ongoing streak behind Arian Foster (7).
  • Buffalo has allowed only one top 24 scoring receiver over their past seven games.
  • Aaron Rodgers has only 66 pass attempts in the fourth quarter this season, 29th in the league.

Trust: Jordy Nelson, Aaron Rodgers, Sammy Watkins

Bust: Eddie Lacy, Robert Woods

Reasonable Return: Kyle Orton, Fred Jackson, Randall Cobb

 

Jaguars @ Ravens
14.5 Spread -14.5
16 Team O/U 29
62.4 Plays/Gm 64.1
68.1 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.3
36.9% Rush % 45.4%
63.1% Pass % 54.6%
45.8% Opp. Rush % 36.5%
54.2% Opp. Pass % 63.5%

 

  • Denard Robinson has just 99 rushing yards on 35 carries over the past three weeks. That 2.8 yards per carry is just below the 2.8 YPC mark that Toby Gerhart has on his 73 attempts this season.
  • Jacksonville has rushed for fewer than 90 yards in eight games this season. Baltimore has allowed opposing teams to rush more 90 yards in four games this season.
  • Over the past three weeks, Marqise Lee has accounted for 25 percent of the receptions and 36 percent of the receiving yards for Jacksonville.
  • Jacksonville has allowed only one top 12 scoring quarterback over their past nine games and only two to reach 15 points scored.
  • Joe Flacco‘s 250.6 passing yards per game and 64 percent completion rate are the highest marks of his career.
  • Justin Forsett now has 36 carries of 10 or more yards, second behind DeMarco Murray‘s 41 on 128 fewer attempts.
  • Forsett is the only back to average at least 4.0 yards per carry in every game this season.

Trust: Justin Forsett

Bust: Torrey Smith, Blake Bortles, Toby Gerhart

Reasonable Return:  Marqise Lee, Steve Smith, Joe Flacco

 

Bengals @ Browns
0 Spread 0
22 Team O/U 22
62.7 Plays/Gm 66.5
69.8 Opp. Plays/Gm 69.6
46.8% Rush % 47.1%
53.2% Pass % 52.9%
42.5% Opp. Rush % 42.2%
57.5% Opp. Pass % 57.8%

 

  • Since Alex Mack was lost for the season, the Browns average 2.9 yards per carry, dead last in the NFL and have averaged over 3.0 yards per carry in only three of those eight games. They averaged 4.5 YPC (11th) through six weeks.
  • A.J. Green leads the league in receiving yards (402) over the past four weeks with three games with three games of 120 or more.
  • Green has been targeted on 30 percent of is routes, most of all receivers.
  • Green has 81 yards receiving total in his past three games facing Cleveland.
  • Mohamed Sanu has just 126 receiving yards over his past five games.
  • Since Gio Bernard returned, he has 39 touches for 156 yards while Jeremy Hill has 47 touches for 215 yards.
  • Hill ranks 5th in rushing points per attempt while Bernard ranks 20th of all backs with at least 100 carries.
  • Josh Gordon played 76.9 percent of the snaps last week, the most since his return.
  • The Bengals have allowed two quarterbacks to rush for 50 yards or more this season and eight runs of 10 or more yards to opposing quarterbacks.
  • In their week 10 meeting, Cleveland ran 52 times, the most rushing attempts for them in a game since 1987.

Trust: Josh Gordon, Isaiah Crowell

Bust: Andy Dalton, Terrance West

Reasonable Return:  Jeremy Hill, Gio Bernard, A.J. Green, Johnny Manziel, Jordan Cameron

 

Buccaneers @ Panthers
n/a Spread n/a
n/a Team O/U n/a
59.3 Plays/Gm 66.1
66.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.8
36.1% Rush % 42.3%
63.9% Pass % 57.7%
44.5% Opp. Rush % 40.5%
55.5% Opp. Pass % 59.5%

 

  • Derek Anderson‘s 0.58 points per attempt are second behind only Aaron Rodgers for any quarterback with at least 50 pass attempts.
  • Anderson was QB9 week 1 facing Tampa Bay.
  • Greg Olsen leads all tight ends in games with five or more receptions (10) and games with 50 or more receiving yards (10).
  • Jonathan Stewart has 240 rushing yards on 32 carries the past two weeks. He had 180 rushing yards on 48 carries in 2013.
  • Carolina is allowing 76.8 rushing yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry over their past four games.
  • Tampa Bay has rushed for 100 yards as a team in just one of their past 11 games.
  • Since week 9, Vincent Jackson has the same amount of targets (59) as Evans with two more receptions and 504 yards to his 599, but has zero touchdowns to Evans’ eight.
  • Evans is the first rookie receiver to catch 10 touchdowns in a season since Mike Williams (11) in 2011.

Trust: Kelvin Benjamin, Greg Olsen, Mike Evans

Bust: Doug Martin, Josh McCown

Reasonable Return:  Vincent Jackson, Derek Anderson, Jonathan Stewart

 

Texans @ Colts
7.5 Spread -7.5
21 Team O/U 28
64.5 Plays/Gm 70.7
68.6 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.1
51.7% Rush % 37.8%
48.3% Pass % 62.2%
40.6% Opp. Rush % 38.8%
59.4% Opp. Pass % 61.2%

 

  • T.Y. Hilton‘s 19 targets last week were two more than he had combined over the previous three games.
  • Hilton averages 5.2 receptions for 122.2 yards and a touchdown in his six career games facing the Texans, topping 75 yards receiving in every game.
  • Andrew Luck has thrown multiple touchdown passes in all five of his career starts facing Houston, including a three touchdown, 370 yard performance back in week 6 on the road.
  • Reggie Wayne has been a top 30 scoring receiver in just two of his past seven games.
  • Houston hasn’t allowed multiple touchdowns passing in a game since week and rank in the top half in opposing yards per attempt (6.9 Y/A) and completion percentage (61.9 percent).
  • Arian Foster has 15 or more points in seven straight games played with at least one touchdown in every one of those games.
  • In his six full games played against Indy in his career, Foster averages 143. 5 yards rushing per game with eight total rushing touchdowns.
  • 46 percent of Andre Johnson‘s touchdowns over the past three seasons (5/11) have come against the Colts.

Trust: Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton, Arian Foster

Bust: Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener, Reggie Wayne, Dan Herron, Trent Richardson, DeAndre Hopkins

Reasonable Return:  Andre Johnson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Donte Moncrief

 

Raiders @ Chiefs
11.5 Spread -11.5
16 Team O/U 25.5
60.7 Plays/Gm 60.0
64.9 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.8
33.7% Rush % 45.3%
66.3% Pass % 54.7%
48.2% Opp. Rush % 44.0%
51.8% Opp. Pass % 56.0%

 

  • The past two weeks are the first time Jamaal Charles has had 10 of fewer carries in back to back games (excluding injury) since 2009.
  • Derek Carr has the most games throwing for under 7.0 yards per attempt (11), the next next highest quarterback, Alex Smith, is at eight.
  • Carr has only been sacked 16 times this season.
  • Latavius Murray played 81 percent of the snaps last week, the second highest percentage any Oakland back has played all season.
  • Marcel Reece has 19.7 percent of the Raider targets the past two weeks, tied for the team lead with Mychal Rivera.
  • James Jones has played 70 percent of the snaps just once since week 9.
  • Kansas City has allowed on average 28.5 carries for 143.3 yards rushing to opposing running backs the past six weeks.
  • Travis Kelce was targeted on 16.4 percent of his snaps last week, his highest percentage since week 4.
  • Kelce’s 67 receiving yards versus Oakland in week 12 are the most by a tight end facing Oakland this season.

Trust: Jamaal Charles, Latavuis Murray

Bust: Derek Carr, James Jones, Andre Holmes, Mychal Rivera

Reasonable Return:  Alex Smith, Dwayne Bowe, Travis Kelce, Marcel Reece

 

Dolphins @ Patriots
9 Spread -9
20 Team O/U 28
63.3 Plays/Gm 68.0
65.0 Opp. Plays/Gm 64.6
39.7% Rush % 40.7%
60.3% Pass % 59.3%
42.8% Opp. Rush % 39.4%
57.2% Opp. Pass % 60.6%

 

  • Jarvis Landry has the 7th most catches in the league over the past six weeks (38), but ranks 29th in receiving yards (318).
  • Ryan Tannehill has passed for 250 or more yards just three times this season, the same number as Mark Sanchez and Zach Mettenberger.
  • LeGarrette Blount has 70 percent of the New England backfield carries over the past three weeks.
  • Shane Vereen has five or fewer touches in three of the past four games.
  • Miami is allowing 176.3 rushing yards per game to running backs over the past three weeks with at least 150 in each game. They had allowed 150 rushing yards to a backfield just once over their first 10 games.
  • New England has held T.Y. Hilton, Calvin Johnson, Jordy Nelson and Keenan Allen to a combined 11 receptions for 138 yards the past four weeks.
  • Combining all tight ends and receivers, Rob Gronkowski‘s average weekly finish since week 5 is 21.7.

Trust: Rob Gronkowski, LeGarrette Blount

Bust: Brandon LaFell, Ryan Tannehill, Jarvis Landry, Mike Wallace

Reasonable Return:  Tom Brady, Julian Edelman, Lamar Miller

 

Washington @ Giants
7 Spread -7
20 Team O/U 26.5
62.8 Plays/Gm 68.0
59.7 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.5
39.3% Rush % 41.6%
60.7% Pass % 58.4%
44.1% Opp. Rush % 44.2%
55.9% Opp. Pass % 55.8%

 

  • Over the past three weeks, Odell Beckham has 29.8 percent of the team targets to Rueben Randle’s 11.4 percent.
  • Beckham leads the league in receptions (28) over the past four weeks and has topped six receptions and 90 yards in six consecutive games.
  • Over the past six weeks, Beckham leads the NFL in targets (67), receptions (49) and receiving yards (723).
  • Eli Manning leads the league with 30 red zone pass attempts over the past four weeks, but has completed just nine of those attempts with three interceptions.
  • The Giants have 15 sacks the past two weeks, most in the league and Washington has allowed five or more sacks in five consecutive games.
  • Washington has allowed nine touchdown passes of 25 yards or longer over the past five weeks.
  • Alfred Morris has just two top 20 finishes in games started by Colt McCoy and Kirk Cousins.

Trust: Odell Beckham

Bust: Alfred Morris, Pierre Garcon, Andre Williams, Rashad Jennings

Reasonable Return:  Eli Manning, Rueben Randle, Jordan Reed

 

Steelers @ Falcons
-1 Spread 1
27.5 Team O/U 26.5
69.3 Plays/Gm 65.2
57.8 Opp. Plays/Gm 66.0
39.6% Rush % 37.1%
60.4% Pass % 62.9%
40.6% Opp. Rush % 43.7%
59.4% Opp. Pass % 56.3%

 

  • Le’Veon Bell has 711 yards from scrimmage the past three game with three consecutive games of 200 plus yards gained from scrimmage, becoming only the second player ever to have accomplished that feat with Walter Payton.
  • Bell has accounted for 48.5 percent of the Steelers yardage the past three weeks.
  • No player at any position has more points scored than Bell over the past four weeks (117.1).
  • 59.7 percent of Martavis Bryant‘s output over the past three weeks have come on his 94-yard touchdown last week.
  • 1
  • 31.4 percent of Julio Jones’ receiving yards have come the past two weeks.
  • Jones’ 448 receiving yards are only 94 yards fewer than the Rams’ season leader this season, Kenny Britt.
  • Atlanta has allowed 13 top scoring running backs; second most in the league (Cincinnati 14).
  • Atlanta has allowed over 450 total yards in six games this season, most in the league.
  • Matt Ryan is second in the league in passing yards (1,496) and tied for fourth in passing touchdowns (10) over the past five weeks.
  • The past seven quarterback finishes against Pittsburgh have been QB10, QB3, QB9, QB8, QB9, QB3 and QB7.
  • With Jones out in 2013, Ryan finished as a top 12 quarterback in only two starts and averaged 13.2 points per game.
  • Over that same stretch, Harry Douglas was a top 24 scoring receiver only four times.
  • Steven Jackson has finished as a top 24 running back in five of his past seven games.

Trust: Matt Ryan, Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, Ben Roethlisberger

Bust: Martavis Bryant, Heath Miller

Reasonable Return:  Roddy White, Steven Jackson, Harry Douglas

 

Broncos @ Chargers
-4 Spread 4
27 Team O/U 23.5
66.7 Plays/Gm 61.7
65.5 Opp. Plays/Gm 61.8
40.6% Rush % 41.1%
59.4% Pass % 58.9%
32.2% Opp. Rush % 41.5%
67.8% Opp. Pass % 58.5%

 

  • Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas are tied for the league lead with seven 100-yard receiving games.
  • San Diego has allowed 12 drives to reach the red zone the past two weeks, most in the league.
  • Peyton Manning‘s 20 pass attempts last week were his fewest since week 16 of 2009 (18 attempts).
  • It’s the first time Manning has thrown for under 200 passing yards in back to back games since weeks 15 and 16 in 2009.
  • Wes Welkers‘ 82 receiving yards last week were the most he’s had in a game since week 7 of last season.
  • Only Le’Veon Bell has more points than the 125.6 points scored by C.J. Anderson since week 10.
  • Philip Rivers has one top 12 scoring week over his past seven games and thrown multiple touchdowns in only one of his past five.
  • Denver has allowed one running back to reach 60 rushing yards in a game over their eight games.

Trust: Peyton Manning, Emmanuel Sanders, Demaryius Thomas, C.J. Anderson

Bust: Philip Rivers, Ryan Mathews, Julius Thomas, Wes Welker

Reasonable Return:  Keenan Allen, Antonio Gates

 

Jets @ Titans
-1 Spread 1
22 Team O/U 20
66.8 Plays/Gm 56.1
60.2 Opp. Plays/Gm 70.6
47.4% Rush % 37.9%
52.6% Pass % 62.1%
41.0% Opp. Rush % 47.1%
59.0% Opp. Pass % 52.9%

 

  • The Titans are allowing 148 yards per game over their past nine and have allowed a 100-yard rusher in five of their past six.
  • The Jets have scored a touchdown on just two of their past 33 drives (six percent).
  • Over the past four weeks, Chris Ivory has handled 43 percent of the backfield carries and Chris Johnson 38 percent.
  • Ivory has 11 carries inside the 5-yard line this season, Johnson just one.
  • Tennessee has begun each drive the past two weeks down an average score of -20.3 points.
  • 32 percent of Jake Locker‘s fantasy points have come from rushing, 4th highest in the league.
  • Delanie Walker was a top 12 scoring tight end in three of Locker’s four starts and just three times in his other eight games played.
  • Walker’s target share was 22.1 percent in those games as opposed to 20.3 percent in the games not started by Locker.

Trust: Chris Ivory, Delanie Walker

Bust: Percy Harvin, Kendall Wright

Reasonable Return:  Eric Decker, Chris Johnson, Geno Smith, Jake Locker

 

Vikings @ Lions
9.5 Spread -9.5
17.5 Team O/U 25
61.2 Plays/Gm 66.2
64.5 Opp. Plays/Gm 61.1
41.6% Rush % 37.8%
58.4% Pass % 62.2%
45.1% Opp. Rush % 33.9%
54.9% Opp. Pass % 66.1%

 

  • Since the start of last season, Joique Bell is tied for the second most rushing touchdowns inside the opponents’ 5-yard line (13) and has done so on only 24 attempts (54.2 percent conversion rate, second best of all players with 20 plus attempts).
  • At home, Matt Stafford Stafford is completing 67.9 percent of his passes for 8.2 Y/A and 17.9 fantasy points per game as opposed to a 54.6 percent completion rate, 6.5 Y/A and 14.6 points per game on the road.
  • Minnesota is allowing 71.0 percent completion percentage on the road, second to last in the league.
  • Golden Tate avraged 23.8 points per game from week 3 through week 8 with four top 12 scoring weeks. In the five games since Calvin Johnson’s return, he’s averaging 13.9 points per game with one top 20 finish.
  • The Vikings have run just 13 plays in the red zone over the past four weeks, fewest in the league. The next lowest team has run 22.
  • Charles Johnson has been targeted on 23.5 percent of his routes the past four weeks.
  • Jarius Wright and Johnson have accounted for the top four receiving yardage games for the Vikings this season.
  • Johnson has finished as a top 22 scoring receiver in three of the past four weeks.
  • Teddy Bridgewater is averaging 15.7 points with three top 15 scoring weeks over his past five games.

Trust: Matt Stafford, Joique Bell, Calvin Johnson, Charles Johnson

Bust: Golden Tate, Matt Asiata

Reasonable Return:  Teddy Bridgewater

 

49ers @ Seahawks
10.5 Spread -10.5
14.5 Team O/U 23.5
63.5 Plays/Gm 63.9
60.1 Opp. Plays/Gm 57.2
44.2% Rush % 51.1%
55.8% Pass % 48.9%
41.1% Opp. Rush % 42.3%
58.9% Opp. Pass % 57.7%

 

  • Russell Wilson has 30 carries of 10 or more yards this season. fourth in the league.
  • Colin Kaepernick has 12 touchdowns to four interceptions in the first half of games this season. After halftime, he has just four touchdowns to six interceptions.
  • Seven of Kaepernick’s 21 regular season interceptions have been thrown in his four starts facing Seattle.
  • 10 of Marshawn Lynch‘s 13 touchdowns this season have been at home.
  • Over their past nine games, Seattle is allowing an average of 9.2 points to opposing quarterbacks.
  • Only two of those quarterbacks have reached 200 yards passing.
  • Frank Gore is averaging 59.6 rushing yards on 14.8 attempts per game, both are his lowest per game totals since his rookie season.

Trust: Marshawn Lynch

Bust: Colin Kaepernick, Frank Gore, Anquan Boldin, Michael Crabtree

Reasonable Return:  Russell Wilson

 

Cowboys @ Eagles
3 Spread -3
26 Team O/U 29.5
62.8 Plays/Gm 70.9
61.6 Opp. Plays/Gm 69.7
49.0% Rush % 42.6%
51.0% Pass % 57.4%
42.1% Opp. Rush % 41.7%
57.9% Opp. Pass % 58.3%

 

  • Per Pro Football Focus, Jeremy Maclin has a 8.9 yard aDOT (average depth of target) in Mark Sanchez’s starts as opposed to the 17.3 yard one before.
  • Maclin has just two receptions of 25 or more in those games after having eight receptions of that length beforehand.
  • Dallas has allowed 18 or more fantasy points to six of the past seven quarterbacks they’ve faced, including 21 points to Sanchez himself on Thanksgiving.
  • Philadelphia has allowed 16 or more points to 10 quarterbacks this season, most in the league.
  • The Cowboys have allowed a top 10 scoring running back in five straight games.
  • In his past two games against the Cowboys, LeSean McCoy has rushed for 290 yards on 52 carries.

Trust: LeSean McCoy, Mark Sanchez, Jeremy Maclin, Dez Bryant, DeMarco Murray

Bust: Darren Sproles, Zach Ertz

Reasonable Return:  Tony Romo, Jordan Matthews

 

Saints @ Bears
-2.5 Spread 2.5
28 Team O/U 25.5
69.1 Plays/Gm 63.5
64.5 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.7
37.8% Rush % 35.4%
62.2% Pass % 64.6%
43.2% Opp. Rush % 41.4%
56.8% Opp. Pass % 58.6%

 

  • The Saints have allowed 298.3 yards through the air the past three weeks; third most in the league.
  • Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall had only two top 25 scoring weeks in the same game this season and only five in 2013.
  • Matt Forte has five or more receptions in every game except one this season, second behind only Antonio Brown.
  • Forte has six games with 150 or more yards from scrimmage which leads the league.
  • New Orleans is allowing 171.3 rushing yards per game over the past six weeks and 5.5 yards per carry to go along with nine rushing scores.
  • Jay Cutler is tied for the league lead with Tony Romo with 12 games of completing 60 percent or more of his throws.
  • Cutler has six games scoring 20 or more fantasy points, which is tied for the third most on the season.
  • Drew Brees leads the league with nine games throwing 40 or more passes. The Saints are 1-8 in those games.
  • Brees is the only quarterback to pass for 200 yards in all 13 games this season.
  • Martellus Bennett has been a top 6 scoring tight end seven times, tied with Greg Olsen and Rob Gronkowski for most in the league.

Trust: Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, Alshon Jeffery, Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham

Bust: Marques Colston, Mark Ingram

Reasonable Return:  Martellus Bennett, Marquess Wilson, Kenny Stills

 

Context Key:

Trust = Set him in your lineups this week

Bust = Player to underperform season average

Reasonable Return = On par with seasonal average

 

*Statistics provided by ProFootballFocus, Pro-Football-Reference, NFLData.com. All Vegas Lines Provided by 5Dimes

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