When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.
First things first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas lines are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favorable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
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These lineups are made with 50/50 and heads-up games in mind.
Seattle Mariners (Young) at New York Yankees (Sabathia)
Chris Young is a non-starter for me tonight. The offense has been better of late, though, so there are some nice values among their hitters. In fact, their price makes them a decent stack for a GPP (depending how DFSers view Sabathia).
Corey Hart (1B) – $5092
The Yankees should do well against Young tonight but a lot of their hitters are a bit over-priced to really look at them for stacking. There are a couple of guys that have hit against him with a lot of success but I don’t know much to attribute to a pitcher that has a little over 250 innings pitched since 2009.
Alfonso Soriano (OF) – $6444
Kelly Johnson (1B) – $5269
