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When determining which way to go with my daily fantasy baseball lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with in my lineups.
First things first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas line are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favourable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
These lineups are made with 50/50 and heads-up games in mind.
**Note: There could be a lot of weather issues today: TB/BAL, CHC/NYY, ATL/PHI are all expecting rain before, during, and after game time.
Tampa Bay Rays (Odorizzi) at Baltimore Orioles (Gonzalez)
Odorizzi has had some ups and downs to start the season, but what worries me is his 27.8-percent line drive rate to start the year. If the Orioles start squaring up the ball with regularity, it’s going to be a quick hook. I learned my lesson with Chris Archer yesterday.
Desmond Jennings (OF) – $6784
Wil Myers (OF) – $5362
Miguel Gonzalez is a non-starter for me at the moment so I’m not going to bother to look in his direction. With the way Odorizzi is apparently leaving some of his pitches center-cut, I could be tempted with some higher priced Orioles today.
Chris Davis (1B) – $7126
J.J. Hardy (SS) – $4878
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