After a disappointing 2012 in which the Blue Jays had one of the worst pitching staffs in the league, the lone remaining Canadian team had the busiest offseason in the majors and will welcome as many as ten new faces to their 25-man roster.
The Jays let Kelly Johnson, Brandon Lyon, Carlos Villanueva, and Jason Frasor walk away in free agency. They then traded Henderson Alvarez, Adeiny Hechavarria, Jeff Mathis, and prospects to Miami to bring back Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio, John Buck, Mark Buehrle, and Josh Johnson – just to show us how it would look if two MLB teams merged into one.
They weren’t done there. They sent Buck and top prospects Travis D’Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard to the Mets in return for Cy Young award winner R.A. Dickey and Josh Thole. Just in case anyone wasn’t sure they were serious about making a run, they added Melky Cabrera and Maicer Izturis to fill holes they didn’t even have.
This isn’t the Blue Jays of old that were content to sit in the basement of the AL East while watching their American counterparts spend hundreds of millions (or bazillions, in Canadian dollars). The Jays raised their payroll from $83 million last year to a projected $122 million in 2013. This season will either be one of the biggest turnarounds in league history or one of the most expensive flops since…last year’s Red Sox.
2012 Team Rankings:
Wins: 73
Runs: 13th Overall
Batting Average: 23rd Overall
ERA: 26th Overall
WHIP: 25th Overall
Catchers: J.P. Arencibia, Josh Thole, Henry Blanco – Grade: B-
Arencibia is batting just .225 in his first two years at the Jays’ full time catcher but has plenty of pop, averaging 20 HR and 67 RBI per season. I expect another .220-.230 year with around 20 homers and 60+ RBI.
Thole and Blanco are both competing for the backup job as well as the unfortunate role of R.A. Dickey’s personal knuckleball catcher since both have caught him in the past. Thole probably has the inside track since he spent the last three years with Dickey, is much younger, and a better hitter. In 308 games over four seasons with the Mets, Thole batted .261 with a .664 OPS. Nothing to write about but better than Blanco’s .227 BA and .677 OPS in just 175 games over the last four years. Blanco is 40 but the better defensive catcher of the two.
First Base: Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind, David Cooper – Grade: B+
Encarnacion had one of the most unlikely monster seasons last year as he hit 42 homers and drove in 110 runs, more than he put up in both stat categories the previous two seasons combined. His previous career highs were 26 homers and 76 RBI so I would imagine he will find a happy medium between that and what he did in 2012 but he could be going through Jose Bautista syndrome where you spend your first six seasons being okay and then suddenly becoming one of the most feared hitters in the league at 29.
Lind will likely be the Blue Jays DH, assuming he doesn’t get sent down to the minors once again. After putting up a .305 BA, .932 OPS, 35 HR, and 114 RBI in 2009, Lind is batting just .246 since with a .724 OPS and 68 RBI per season. Last year he hit just 11 homers and drove in 45 and spent his May and June in the minors where he batted .404.
Cooper is one of Toronto’s top prospects, especially after they traded so many away to Miami and New York. After batting .301 in 517 minor league games, Cooper batted .300 with a .788 OPS, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 11 2B, and 16 R in 140 at-bats in his first real Major League stint last year. There isn’t much room for him to get at bats but the former first-round pick has plenty of potential.
Second Base: Emilio Bonifacio, Maicer Izturis – Grade: B
Some think Izturis will start but I think Bonifacio is the better player though he may end up playing a lot at other positions. Bonifacio played just 64 games last year but stole 30 bases and was on track for a great season before being sidelined with a thumb injury and later a knee sprain. The previous year he batted .296 with 40 SB, 26 2B, 7 3B, and a .753 OPS which is right around where he should be but with more steals.
Izturis is definitely the better glove but he has never been a great hitter. Over his last two seasons with the Angels he batted .268 (.687 OPS) and averaged 29 RBI, 43 R, and 13 SB which is right around where he will continue to be.
Shortstop: Jose Reyes, Macier Izturis – Grade: A-
Despite playing well in his first year in Miami, Reyes found himself on a plane to Canada anyway after just one year of his six-year contract. Last season he batted .287 (.780 OPS) with 11 HR, 57 RBI, 86 R, 37 2B, 12 3B, and 40 SB. He also walked 63 times while striking out just 56. He has really become one of the most multifaceted players in the game and should be a big part of Toronto’s offense if he stays healthy.
Third Base: Brett Lawrie, Mark DeRosa – Grade: C+
Lawrie is a former top prospect who showed signs of a solid third baseman in his first full year in the Majors. He batted .273 (.729 OPS) with 11 HR, 48 RBI, 73 R, 26 2B, and 13 SB. He could be a 20-20 guy if he develops like Toronto hopes and definitely has the talent to be an elite Major League third bagger.
DeRosa is definitely in the twilight of his career after playing just 121 games over the last three years and batting .188 in 101 plate appearances last season. I don’t think the Blue Jays are that desperate for a guy who can play any position since they already have Izturis and Bonifacio so I doubt we’ll see much of DeRosa.
Outfield: Jose Bautista, Colby Rasmus, Melky Cabrera, Rajai Davis – Grade: B-
Bautista missed two months with a wrist injury and still hit 27 home runs. Even taking last season’s 92 games into account, Joey Bats is averaging 41 HR, 97 RBI, 93 R, and a .992 OPS over his last three seasons and should surpass all of those with a fully healthy year in 2013.
Rasmus doesn’t make it look good but 23 homers, 75 RBI, and 75 R is pretty solid for most centerfielders. His .223 BA, .689 OPS, and 149 SO are all big red flags but at least he’s consistent and you know what you are going to get. More than you can say for Adam Lind.
Melky is a mystery. How many guys bat .346 and then get just a two-year, $16 million contract? However many bat .267 while averaging 54 RBI, 60 R, and 10 SB per season in their first 710 games, suddenly bat .322 (.849 OPS) with 14 HR, 74 RBI, 93 R, and 16 SB per season and then get a 50-game suspension for performance enhancing drugs. Who could have seen that coming? I really don’t know which Melky we’ll see, it depends how long steroids stay in your system.
Rajai Davis is one of the best base stealers in the Majors and one of the more underrated outfielders. His offensive production is average, he is a career .270 hitter who averages around 64 runs, 45 RBI, 25 2B, and a .700 OPS when he plays a full year. More importantly, he stole 46 bases last season and has 171 steals over his last four seasons. It’s a shame he will have a reduced role in 2013 (barring injuries), he’s a burner.
Starting Rotation: R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Brandon Morrow, Ricky Romero – Grade: A
Dickey has truly become one of the best pitchers in baseball and with a salary of $5 million in 2013 (and $12 million in subsequent seasons) he’s also one of the game’s biggest bargains. In three years with the Mets, Dickey went 39-28 with a 2.95 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and better than a 3:1 SO/BB ratio. Last season he became the Mets’ first Cy Young award winner since Doc Gooden in 1985 as he went 20-6 with a 2.73 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and better than a 4:1 SO/BB ratio. He also led the league with 233 IP, 230 K, 5 complete games, and three shutouts. I expect him to have a sub-3.00 ERA once again assuming the move to the AL doesn’t prove too difficult.
From 2009 to 2011, Josh Johnson was 29-12 with a 2.64 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and a 3.5 SO/BB ratio. Last season he was just 8-14 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, not horrible but not his usual self. I think Johnson is one of the best pitchers in the league and should bounce back well now that he is out of the mess that was the 2012 Miami Marlins.
Buerhle has had an ERA over 3.84 just once since 2007 and at 34 remains one of the most consistent guys in the league. He never gets hurt and has never pitched under 200 IP in his career. Last season he was 13-13 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.17 WHIP and I think he should be around that level once again in 2013.
Morrow had a breakout season in 2012 as he went 10-7 with a 2.96 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 8 SO/9 in 21 starts. He had a 4.37 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 523 IP coming into last season so you have to wonder if he is finally hitting his potential or it was a fluke. The best thing about Morrow is he allows very few homers, 0.9/9 last season, and if he stays healthy he should be in the low-to-mid 3.00s with close to 200 Ks.
After starting Opening Day in 2012, Rickey Romero is the team’s fifth starter entering 2013 having pitched worse than anyone envisioned last year. After going 15-11 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 2011, Romero as 9-14 with a 5.77 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, and a league leading 105 BB. Romero has now had an ERA in the 2s, 3s, 4s, and 5s over his first four seasons so this season could see either an ERA in the 1s or more likely one in the 6s.
Bullpen: Casey Janssen, Sergio Santos, Darren Oliver, Brad Lincoln, Steve Delabar, Esmil Rogers – Grade: B-
After two excellent seasons out of the pen, Jannsen took over the Jays’ closer job and isn’t letting go. Last year he saved 22 games (in 25 opportunities) and put up a 2.54 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. Having just turned 31, Jannsen still has the potential to become an elite MLB closer as long as he doesn’t get hurt by the long ball (7 homers allowed in 63 IP last season).
Santos was the White Sox closer in 2011 and was traded to the Jays for a prospect. He missed most of 2012 with a hurt shoulder that eventually required surgery but the 29-year-old has wicked stuff and a fastball that hits the high-90s – in 2011 he had 13 SO/9.
Darren Oliver is like a bullpen version of R.A. Dickey. He basically retired after 2004 after putting up a 5.07 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 1400 IP. He returned as a reliever in 2006 for the Mets and has a 2.86 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 7.5 SO/9 since. I expect him to put up those numbers once again.
Lincoln looked good with a 2.73 ERA and 1.10 WHIP for the Pirates in 28 games last year and was traded at the deadline for Travis Snider. He struggled in Toronto putting up a 5.65 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 24 games and may not be cut out for the AL. He has a career 4.78 ERA and I expect him to be in that neighborhood this year.
Rogers and Delabar are both average middle relievers in their mid-20s with nothing of particular note to either.
Team Grade: B+
Fearless Prediction: 95-67, 1st in AL East
