Week 15 NFL Picks Against the Point Spread
Over the past few weeks, I have mentioned that spreads are getting incredibly close to what we are seeing reflected in the final scores of games. It makes sense. We now have three-quarters of a year’s worth of data at our fingertips, and it can be concluded that, in a head-to-head game, the Vikings are […]
Week 12 NFL Picks Against the Point Spread
I have to be fair. If I point to an average record in a difficult week as a ‘win,’ then I must point to good record in an ‘easy’ week as a ‘breakeven.’ Such is the task laid out before us. We aim to win, and I frequently comment that staying afloat in weeks where […]
Week 9 NFL Picks Against the Point Spread
Every week is a new opportunity when it comes to picking games against the spread. Last week, there were so many inflated spreads due to lopsided matchups that we only needed competitive efforts from a handful of teams in order to benefit. Unfortunately, they missed. But, the reality is that they didn’t miss by much. […]
Week 7 NFL Picks Against the Point Spread
Maybe my own words came back to haunt me. Last week, I touched on the likelihood of a major shift coming, and how it would wipe out those not prepared. As “prepared” as we were, we still weren’t immune. But, as always, these weeks are inherent with the game we’re playing. The good news – […]
Week 6 NFL Picks Against the Point Spread
Get ready. Last week, I wrote about how important it is to tread water when things get rough. We did so, again. But, “rough” waters aren’t made from results. They’re made from the shifts in trends. Subtle at first. Then violent. There’s a shift happening. We’re about to see it. In fact, it usually happens […]
Week 5 NFL Picks Against the Point Spread
What a week. I can’t tell if it should be considered ‘eerie’ or a self-fulfilling prophecy. Either way, it was critical. And it’s more critical that everyone understands why it’s so critical. Last week’s introduction focused wholly on approaching picks carefully after big wins. The key was that, when we regress – because we will […]
Week 3 NFL Picks Against the Point Spread
What a start to the season it has been. Week 1 was all about preseason expectations coming to light – it always is. Week 2 was all about overreactions from Week 1 – it always is. Week 3 is all about… everything. Through the 16 games detailed below, I kept finding certain trends cited and […]
Week 2 NFL Picks Against the Point Spread
I know I constantly write about how much I love Opening Day. I do. But it’s Week 2 that always has my heart. I always write about perception, reality, and the disconnect between the two. Can we ever have a more severe disconnect than people making snap decisions after just one week of football? No. […]