Week 8 was the antithesis of the chalk board drowned season we have been enjoying thus far. One of the highest owned cash plays at running back, Spencer Ware, was injured early in the game, changing the slate completely. In addition, noteable chalk plays like Jimmy Graham, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, and T.Y. Hilton(injury) severely under performed their expected fantasy points. This led to lower cash game and GPP cash lines across the industry. In addition, Ty Montgomery was declared as out unexpectedly, due to illness, after the 10 AM pst games had locked. Fortunately, most people were sharp enough to make the quick adjustment to Devante Adams who was cheaper and would assuredly fill the void of Randall Cobb and Montgomery.
($Price) Player name vs Opponent | Spread, Game Total
Cash Game Plays
($5500)Joe Flacco vs PIT | -3 BAL, 43
We are always trying to find value at every position, especially in cash games at QB, and I can’t find another QB i feel great about unless i go up about $1K. Flacco is at home vs Pittsburgh, who’s allowing the 7th most receiving yards per game. He averages 18.84 fantasy points vs the Steelers while at home and that should be plenty DK points in cash while allowing you to pay up at other positions.
($7900)Ezekiel Elliot @ CLE | -7 DAL, 48.5
While Elliot may not be the best play this week, he will assuredly be the highest owned running back in week 9. In cash games, sometimes you have to play the block if it’s a great play, even if you think there is a better raw points projected or points per dollar play. If Elliot goes off for 30 points and you don’t have him while 50%> of the field does, you could be drawing dead early come Sunday. Example: Lesean McCoy vs the 49ers. Elliot is averaging 24.9 touches per game and 21.6 DraftKings points. Cleveland allows the second most rush yards per game and the 4th most fantasy points to the position.
($8900)Antonio Brown @ BAL | -3 BAL, 43
With reports coming out of Pittsburgh, Ben Roethlisberger is looking likely to play, which instantly puts Brown back in place as the clear top cash game play. I’m not going to waste your time with splits with and without Ben because it’s pretty obvious they kill life while together on a football field. His price has come down from $10K due to Ben not being expected to play when the prices were set this week. That leaves him about $1K under priced and a lock as the top play on the slate. It also helps the Ravens allow the 2nd most fantasy points per game to the position.
($4000)Kyle Rudolph vs DET | -6 MIN, 41
Rudolph has the best tight end matchup vs the Lions, and we have been successful targeting them and we will keep doing so. Detroit has allowed 8 Touchdowns to TEs and I don’t expect regression in that department. Rudolph is averaging 8 targets per game and has 8 red zone targets. The Vikings also have a decent team total of 23.5.
GPP Plays
($7800)Aaron Rodgers vs IND | -7.5 GB, 54
It sucks going back to a guy right after he won everyone all the money in GPPs, but Rodgers is the clear number 1 projected raw points play at QB this week. Void of any running game, Rodgers has not attempted less than 38 passes since the week 4 bye. He has also been very efficient in that span, completing 66.9% of his passes and tossing 10 touchdowns. I can see moving off of Rodgers for Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, or Drew Brees from a game theory perspective, but Rodgers has the highest probability of being the number one QB on the week.
($6400)Matt Forte @ MIA | -3.5 MIA, 44
Miami has allowed the 4th most rush yards per game in the league and Forte’s work load has been elevated in the past two games. I am not sure this is just because of the turf to injury Bilal Powell has been dealing with. I believe it is more of a function of how inept the quarterbacks on the Jets have been in an effort to take the ball out of their hands and lean on the running game. Forte has 34 and 27 touches the last two week and has 30 red zone carries and 3 targets on the season.
($5900)Stefon Diggs vs MIN | -6 MIN, 41
How many Minnesota players involved in the best matchup for passing games are you comfortable playing? All of the Viking’s pieces are extremely under priced for playing Detroit and being at home. The best part of their offense is you know it will all be Rudolph and Diggs getting all the work through the air. When you can project them both for 10+ targets, all the opportunity in the offense, and they are both $1K too cheap it is hard for me to get off of them, even if it is Sam Badford(sp?) tossing them the rock. Darius Slay took part in individual drills, but is still hampered by a hamstring injury. I expect him, if he plays, to do so at less than 100%.
($3800)Dennis Pitta vs PIT | -3 BAL, 43
The Steelers have allowed the 10th most fantasy points to tight ends and Pitta is a key cog in the Baltimore offense. He has averaged 8.14 targets per game and 10.6 DK points. He has not had a big week due to not scoring a single touchdown this year, but I expect that to regress positively.
Lines as of 11.2.16
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