Yep… Yep. It’s week 7. I checked about 12 times because I am in disbelief at how fast the daily fantasy football season is flying by. It was just preseason and we were rostering random guys like John Crockett and Bryce Petty. Current O’Reillys employees and bus boys were catching touchdowns which had us asking lifes most burning question: If a wide receiver catches a TD, but he was not in a single DFS lineup, did he really catch a TD at all? Now we are fully in the mix, and our data is getting more actionable with trends developing.
Thus far in the week there are no home run free square type value plays on the main slate, and lineup construction will be fairly challenging. There are only a few top end RBs in great spots and the high end WRs that project high will be hard to get to, making this a great slate for GPPs. Let’s wade through this marsh of fantasy uncertainty.
Plays will be tailored to the main Sunday only slate on DraftKings. They are good plays around the industry, but may not present the best value on sites other than DK.
($Price on DK) Player Name vs Opponent | Spread, Game Total
Cash Game Plays
($5,900)Kirk Cousins @ DET | -1 DET, 49
Kirk Cousins has attempted the 6th most passes in the league thus far this season and is averaging 17.8 fantasy points. He is facing the Lions secondary that has allowed the 7th most passing yards over the past 3 games and the most passing touchdowns(17) this season. I expect Cousins to approach his ceiling and I see his average fpts as his floor in this top 3 matchup for QBs. The decent team total of 24 is a boost as well.
($7,600)Lesean McCoy @ MIA | -3 BUF, 44
After running all over the 49ers for 140 yards and 3 touchdowns, McCoy gets the next best thing vs the Miami Dolphins. They have allowed the second most rush yards per game at 147 per clip. McCoy has not had less than 19 touches this season and is averaging 23.4 fantasy points per game. The Miami offense has been terrible and I expect the Bills to play this game from ahead, leading to a positive game script for Lesean McCoy to garner more touches.
($7,200)Demarco Murray vs IND | -3 TEN, 48.5
Yes, I am writing up Murray once again. He had a down week vs the Browns who played surprisingly tough run defense for most of the day and ended up with 12.5 fantasy points which was disappointing, but he still received 21 touches. The Titans staff has shown a dedication to riding Murray as the workhorse back and revolving the offense around him. He has 9 red zone targets and 15 red zone rushes tied for 3rd most opportunities in the red zone amongst all skill position players. Murray is also facing the Indianapolis defense who has yielded the 3rd most rushing yards in the league over the last 3 games.
(Thursday Contests)
($4,700)Cam Meredith @ GB | -7.5 GB, 46
What does this guy have to do to get his price tag to rise? Well, whatever it is, I hope he doesn’t do it because I will happily take my 20-30 DK points for $4,700 any given week. Although this article is for the main slate, I felt I needed to throw him in as an extra pick because it’s a free spot if you’re playing the Thursday slate.
($8,600)A.J. Green vs CLE | -10 CIN, 45.5
The passing game of the Cincinnati Bengals rests upon Green’s back. He has 50 targets through 6 weeks, good for 3rd most in the league, and he has the 2nd most yards accumulated at 606. He provides a nice discount off of Antonio Brown in a tough matchup and Julio Jones as well, who is not being leaned on as heavily by the Falcons as he has in the past.
($6,000)Jordan Reed @ DET | -1 DET, 49
If you are reading any DFS advice article and they don’t mention Jordan Reed as the top cash game tight end option, stop reading their articles(Yes, I know who Gronk is.). The Lion’s have allowed the most touchdowns(7) to the position, the third most fantasy points, and Jordan Reed is the best red zone option and best receiving option period on the Redskins. He has received the 3rd most targets among TEs with 7 of those coming in the red zone and I feel that number may even be in for some positive regression with Jamison Crowder oddly receiving a bunch of looks in the opponent’s 20 early in the season. It may be hard to fit him in, but if you can, slot him in there. Although Reed is currently in the concussion protocol, I think he will play.
GPP Plays
($6,000)Marcus Mariota @ IND | -3 TEN, 48.5
While I am not ready to go back to Mariota in cash games, I think he makes a top GPP option this week. He has had 3 passing touchdowns, 7 rushing attempts, and at least 60 rushing yards in each of his last two games. He also ran one in the end zone in that span. The Titans are really letting Mariota loose on the ground more than ever, and it has resulted in back to back finishes in the top four of weekly fantasy scoring among QBs the last two weeks. This matchup with the Colts is no lesser, as they have allowed the 4th most passing yards in the last 3 games and the 4th most completions this season.
($6,400)Melvin Gordon @ ATL | -6.5 ATL, 53.5
Gordon is finally being used like a true workhorse averaging 21.66 touches per game and has 7 touchdowns already, after not scoring a single one last year. This should be a shootout, there will be many scoring opportunities where I expect him to get the work, evidenced by his league leading 29 carries in the red zone. He has also seen 4 targets there. I believe he will go under owned due to Demarco Murray being so close in price and most people will find the $800 to upgrade.
($7,800)Mike Evans @ SF | -1.5 TB, 47.5
Evans is averaging 12 targets per game and is a great leverage off of the RB vs SF play of the week, Doug Martin(assuming he plays(play Jacquizz Rodgers if he doesn’t)). Evans has 7 targets in the red zone and the 49ers have allowed the second most passing touchdowns with 10.He should receive an even larger target share with Vincent Jackson on IR with an ACL tear.
($3,600)Hunter Henry @ ATL | -6.5 ATL, 53.5
Many people refuse to play number two tight ends, but Henry is getting more opportunity than most TEs at the top of the depth chart and more than the number one on his own squad. Antonio Gates is playing through a hamstring injury and playing limited snaps, getting limited targets. Henry is averaging 6 targets, 72.5 yards, and .75 touchdowns over the last 4 games, since he has been getting a decent percentage of snaps. At a position bereft of agility, full of dad runners, Henry provides the electric athletic upside that is hard to find. He has 6 red zone targets this year, and San Diego seems to play in the biggest shootout weekly due to their secondary’s ineptitude sans Jason Verrett.
Odds as of 10.18.16
Featured Image Credit: By Navin75 (Flickr: WR AJ Green) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
