How does it move so fast? After this week 4 we will be almost 1 quarter through the daily fantasy football season, unless you’re a degenerate like me who may even find his way into some playoff DFS. Who’s kidding, I will. I had a decent week in which I was able to profit, even though I was all in on Marcus Mariota on DraftKings and he only scored 7.76 fantasy points. This really reinforced how valuable paying down at quarterback can be in cash games when you allow yourself to get high floor and ceiling plays at other positions.
This week is much more difficult than the previous 3. The plays are not as clear and obvious and I believe there are a few high game totals that may lead many disappointed come weeks end. Always remember that how Vegas thinks the public will bet is considered in where the odds are set. Our sample sizes are getting more actionable and I think we can start adjusting our perceptions of defenses and how to target them.
Lets dig in.
Cash Game Plays
($6,000/$5,000)Brian Hoyer vs DET | -3 DET, 46.5
Yes, you read that correctly. Brian Hoyer will be my week 2 cash QB. At the $5k stone minimum on DK, what could go wrong(see Marcus Mariota)? Hoyer put up 22.4 DK points in his first spot start and his price has not risen at all. He has 3 talented pass catchers in Alshon Jeffery, Kevin White, and Zach Miller who should all bolster his success. The Detroit secondary has allowed 10 passing touchdowns through 3 weeks and the most fantasy points to the position.
($8,700/$7,800)David Johnson vs LA | -8 AZ, 42.5
Hey DJ, that’s my DJ *music notes emoji*. Paying up for Johnson has been a profitable strategy thus far and will continue to be. His involvement in his team’s potent offense shined through this past Sunday with him scoring 26.1 DK points in a game where Carson Palmer tossed 5 picks. He is invincible to game script and will continue to be the top running back target. The Los Angeles Rams have been a middling unit in terms of allowing rushing giving up an average of 100 yards per game there through 3 weeks. This includes the week 2 barricading of Seattle, in which the Seahawk run game only amassed 67 rushing yards ,which skewed the average due to the small sample size, but that was vs one of the worst offensive lines in the league.
($7,600/$7,300)Marvin Jones vs CHI | -3 DET, 46.5
Well here we are. Its week 3 and Marvin Jones is the number one fantasy WR overall. He has been targeted consistently seeing 29 looks through 3 games and he continues to get these targets deep in the field, 13 of those being 15 or more yards down the field. This was all before he faced the Chicago Bears terrible, bottom 5 in the league secondary who just got worse by losing Kyle Fuller until at least week 8. Their numbers on the season don’t bear it out yet due to facing the pretty average offensives of Houston, Philadelphia, and Dallas. There is going to be fireworks.
($5,600/$3,400)Kyle Rudolph vs NYG | -4.5 MIN, 43.5
The red nosed reindeer has seen 26 targets through 3 weeks, the second most of all tight ends, and he costs just $3,400. The leader in that department is Greg Olsen, who will cost you a great deal more at $6,000. Rudolph faces a Giant’s defense that funnels pass production to the middle of the field, where Kyle will be operating. He is the number two option in the passing game and should make hay vs the Giants secondary.
GPP Plays
($9,300/$7,800)Cam Newton vs ATL | -3 CAR, 50.5
This spot is the nuts for Cam. He is such a big part of the Panther offense in all facets and faces the defense that has allowed the 3rd most total yards this season at 1,299. The Carolina secondary is not as strong as last year and I expect Atlanta to put some points on the board, keeping Cam with his foot on the gas pedal. Let’s not forget Atlanta has to face #angryCam after a brutal loss to the Vikings last week. I would love to use Cam in cash as well, as this is literally the perfect spot, but he will be hard to fit without punting a position.
($8,200/$7,000)Lamar Miller vs TEN | -6.5 HOU, 40
Miller has received 74 carries and 11 targets thus far. That is the second most carries in the league. Getting into the end zone can be very fluky and can make it seem like a player has been under performing and Miller has yet to find the promised land. This should leave him low owned. Also, Miller has had 2 very difficult matchups in Kansas City and New England, after putting up over 100 yards vs the Bears in week 1. Bill O’Brien has shown commitment to the run and giving as many carries as possible to Miller. While this is not a top shelf match up, in GPPs it is smart to target mid-level defenses with guys that have insane workloads and upside.
($7,600/$7,600)Amari Cooper vs BAL | -3.5 BAL, 46.5
Cooper is one of the top 10 targeted WRs in the league having seen 29 looks through 3 games, but he has yet to find the end zone. I love to look for situations like this, similar to what was discussed with Lamar Miller previously. Due to not finding the end zone, he has yet to have a boom week and is thus fading from the public radar. Everything is there for it to come to fruition and we saw Allen Robinson bust out for 2 touchdowns last week vs this Ravens squad who is again weak in the secondary this year. You can guarantee the Raiders will keep throwing the ball due to giving up voluminous points, as they are the worst defense in the league.
($5,000/$2,700)Zach Miller vs DET | -3 DET, 46.5
Two bears in the picks?! What is going on here?! In catastrophe, we have to find how to use the chaos to our advantage. One of the advantages of Cutler going down is the increase in usage of Zach Miller. After a tough TE matchup in week 2 vs the Eagles we saw Miller’s targets jump to 9 from the 4 and 5 targets in the first two weeks respectively. In addition, Kevin White has been ineffective with his targets thus far, leaving Zach Miller as the number 2 option. The Bears offense is a high volume passing game caused by the Bears always playing from behind due to their inept defense which boosts the opportunity for Miller. Detroit has already allowed 19 receptions, 219 yards, and 5 touchdowns to the tight end position this season. That is alarming. Miller has a ton of upside this week. If playing the main slate, where you can’t use Rudolph in cash, Miller is a fine play in your H2Hs.
Featured Image Credit: By Pantherfan11 [GFDL or CC BY-SA 3.0], via Wikimedia Commons
