Sunday closes the week of baseball with a rare two-game night schedule. Of course, the entire league will be in action, with a few top pitchers highlighting the day.
Currently, we are using xFIP and wOBA simply to compare one pitcher’s performance against another – especially against opposite-handed hitters. We aren’t using these numbers for calculation. To help with some calculations, we have assumed that each hitter and pitcher has played at least one game. Each pitcher was assigned an innings total relative to his average projection.
Check the starting lineups and weather reports prior to making any plays, as these change without notice.
Projected Low-Scoring Games
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians – As always, Corey Kluber draws the recommendation thanks to his high-strikeout rate and uncanny knack for pitching deep into games. The Royals are exceptionally stingy at striking out, but Kluber not only has the chance to change this, it is arguably the path by which he outperforms his projections. Chris Young is in the opposite position, as the Indians strike out at a decent pace, with Young’s personal strikeout numbers impressively high.
Target: Corey Kluber, then Chris Young
Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers – Sunday’s matchup in Detroit presents a pitcher’s duel between Jose Quintana and Justin Verlander. Both pitchers should thrive in the strikeout department, where Quintana gains a slight edge. Verlander has the advantage in limiting runs, but both pitchers should deliver nice outings.
Targets: Jose Quintana and Justin Verlander
New York Mets at Miami Marlins – Be careful. Do not be so quick to determine that Matt Harvey has completely returned to form. Indeed, his last outing was spectacular, but it should not have come as a complete surprise – in fact, he was one of our top targets of the day. Harvey may no longer be scuffling, but he needs to show more consistency before he can be crowned a ‘top ace’ again. Instead, Harvey’s counterpart – Jose Fernandez – has the solid edge, as he faces a strikeout-prone Mets offense in his own pitcher-friendly ballpark.
Target: Jose Fernandez
Projected High-Scoring Games
Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds – After back-to-back one-sided affairs, the Nationals are ready to return to normal. Jon Moscot presents a solid buying opportunity for Washington’s bats, but we should not necessarily disregard the Reds. Cincinnati has shown no signs of slowing down offensively, and should take part in the hitter-centric contest.
Targets: Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals Hitters
Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins – Drew Smyly was one of our favorite targets for the early portion of 2016, but he has trailed off dramatically since. Now, he is likely poised to contribute to a potentially high-scoring affair. He still gains the edge over Tyler Duffey – as Rays’ bats should be the first priority – but runs should be plentiful in Minnesota, yet again.
Targets: Tampa Bay Rays Hitters, then Minnesota Twins Hitters
Undervalued Plays
Matt Wisler – Like Brandon Finnegan on Friday, Matt Wisler has become one of our favorite undervalued pitching option on a given day. The Braves’ right-handed pitcher should never be expected to secure a win – as his team’s offense is so bad that run support is nonexistent – but he sports a 3.16 ERA and is showing no signs of slowing down. For his savings on a day with so many expensive pitching options, Wisler is in another position to thrive.
Featured Image Credit: Keith Allison/Flickr C.C. 2.0
