When I construct my fantasy lineups, throughout the DFS sports, two common things end up being my baseline for the path my roster takes. The top value plays and the highest ceiling superstar studs. In this article, I will attempt to attack these two prevalent fantasy focus points in NBA DFS.
I will list the players match up vs position for the last week because that is the most applicable to me, with the enormous amount of turnover in players and rotations from week to week in the NBA. For shooting guards and small forwards I list the DvP as SG,SF because there is a lot of defensive switches on the wings and the teams do not always match up SG vs SG and SF vs SF. For power forwards and centers I list the DvP PF,C so I get a general sense of how difficult a test the opponents front court is as a whole. I actually will use the PF,C DvP to help me for point guard selection as well to see how driving to the hoop will go for the PG, but I will not be listing those DvP’s under each point guard’s section.
After that I like to see how the match up went last time and try to delve a little deeper and figure out what has changed since then and the effects on the game script. I will attempt to provide thoughts on the most convoluted situations, particularly those with moving pieces.
Note: I will update the article when I can, but superior value may arise later in the day with injury news, as well as shifting the best high end options, as it commonly does, but as of being written, these are my favorite plays.
AWAY @ HOME – Over/Under | Line
IND @ PHI – 203 | IND -10.5
Ceiling:
($9.2K)Paul George
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 2 games, 43.4 Fpts in 33.4 Mins
($6.8K)Ish Smith
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game 25.8 Fpts in 31 Mins
Value:
($4.9K)George Hill
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game, 22.8 Fpts in 25.4 Mins
George Hill is a talented player who I like to target in spots he can hit his ceiling. This is one of those, vs a ball dominant Ish Smith, who is terrible at defense.
DET @ CHI – 204.5 | CHI -2.5
Derrick Rose and Taj Gibson are doubtful for Saturday
Ceiling:
($7.8K)Jimmy Butler
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 44.6 Fpts in 45 Mins
HE’S BACK!! That’s what you’ll be saying tonight after you jumped back on the ship at the most obvious spot ever. Jimmy Butler’s usage and FGA attempts increase dramatically without Derrick Rose in the lineup.
($5.7K)Marcus Morris
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 30.7 Fpts in 45.8 Mins
He will finally be high owned, but I’ve been riding him for a long time time now. He never falls short of value, and has flashed his upside last game with 57.4 Fpts. I can’t hop off him now that the public is on him cause I’m a Marcus Morris OG.
TOR @ SA – 196.5 | SA -10.5
SAC @ DEN – 215 | DEN -9
Rajon Rondo is out. DeMarcus Cousins has said he will rest, but it is not confirmed.
Update: Kosta Koufos and Willie Cauley-Stein questionable for Saturday; Rondo, Cousins, and Belinelli officially out
Should both Doufus and WCS sit, we might be talking about some big minutes for ($3.7K)Quincy Acy who, without those that may sit on the court, produces 1.34 Fan Duel Fpts/Min. The Denver front court is weak and can be exploited and should Acy get 30 mins, he will certainly meet value, with upside for 35 fantasy points. ($6K)Rudy Gay also enters consideration. Due to his lack of production without the other stars on the court recently, the populace will be off him. He also has seemed disinterested lately. That said, he could easily go for 50 fantasy points in this matchup if he decides to try making him an excellent GPP play.
Update: Omri Casspi (hamstring) ruled out
This provides a minutes boost for all front court players, especially Rudy Gay.
Ceiling:
Update: Jusuf Nurkic (illness) probable for Saturday; Darrell Arthur (knee) questionable
Nurkic’s presence downgrades Jokic and I will probably look to my top center play of the night.
Nikola Jokic
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 2 games, 19.9 Fpts in 11.9 Mins
The Joker is getting to a price where I’m willing to take a shot on him for his upside vs a Boogieless Sacramento squad and is one of two centers I have interest in tonight. GPP only and not for the faint of heart.
Value:
($5.8K)Darren Collison
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 2 games, 23.4 Fpts in 32.9 Mins
Collison is certainly an elite play, but is completely fadeable at his elevated price. Keep in mind, he could put up a 50 burger.
($4.9K)Willie Cauley-Stein
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 2 games 21. Fpts in 18.9 Mins
WCS is still a great play, but not a must play like when he was sub $4K.
($3.9K)Kosta Koufus
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 2 games, 6.9 Fpts in 10.7 Mins
This is an entirely different game situation than yesterday. Remember that while others don’t and are disappointed with last nights 22 mins in an obvious bad spot. I expect Koufus to play 28-32 mins vs his former team. Narrative Avenue.
($5.6K)Emmanual Mudiay
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 2 games, 19.2 Fpts in 28.3 Mins
Mudiay has been consistently hitting 20-25 Fpts, but has the upside for 45 Fpts, and if he is almost hitting value regularly, I’m gonna keep riding him til he hits the big one. Ye old guard vs guard in same game correlation is firmly in play today.
MIA @ POR – 209.5 | POR -6
Dwayne Wade went from doubtful to questionable for today’s game.
Fantasy news sites seem to be convinced he won’t play, but a mid day status upgrade always raises an eyebrow for me. Plus, It’s Dwayne Wade, he may end up playing and put up a 60 burger tonight.
Value:
Should he not go, ($6.8K)Goran Dragic and ($4.9K)Joe Johnson become elite plays in elite matchups due to the enormous usage and FGA boost sans Wade. Luol Deng also receives a boost, but he is priced up.
Ceiling:
($8K)Damian Lillard
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game, 43.9 Fpts in 37.4 Mins
I always mention him here, but I never roster Lillard. He is too dependent on making shots to exceed his value, contrary to most other high dollar options.
($8.7K)Hassan Whiteside
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game, 48.7 Fpts in 37.6 Mins
Hassan Upside Blockside disappointed greatly with 28.6 Fpts last night. I’m gonna hop on the train with the extra room from the people who were burned yesterday.
Just Give Me the Damn Plays
Top Ceiling:
Hassan Whiteside
Jimmy Butler
Top Value:
Joe Johnson
Kosta Koufus
Lines as of 10 AM
