When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.
First thing’s first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas lines are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favorable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
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These lineups are made with double-ups in mind.
Chicago White Sox (Sale) at Baltimore Orioles (Chen)
I’m at a bit of a loss as to what to do with Sale. He seems like one of the safest pitching options possible right now. That said, Baltimore has started to score a bit more and they have been about as good as Oakland against lefties this year. I’ll probably just take King Felix. I do like the power bats from the Sox today and one of them is a bit under-priced.
Jose Abreu (1B) – $7845
Gordon Beckham (2B) – $5887
Dayan Vicideo (OF) – $4746
I don’t want a whole lot to do with the Orioles tonight. I don’t feel comfortable paying about as much for either Cruz/Jones as I would Abreu and I don’t like their bats against Sale in general. Pearce is about the only guy with value here today.
Steve Pearce (1B) – $4751
JJ Hardy (SS) – $3453
