When determining which way to go with my daily lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.
First thing’s first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas lines are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favorable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
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These lineups are made with double-ups in mind.
There is a lot of bad weather expected in the northeast and Midwest tonight. BOS/BAL, SDP/PHI, CHI/PIT, LAD/CIN, and DET/CWS are all under a threat of a good amount of rain and/or thunderstorms. Wait to set your lineups and adjust as necessary as first pitch approaches.
Boston Red Sox (Workman) at Baltimore Orioles (Tillman)
I’m staying away from both pitchers here tonight.
Despite last night’s performance, I’m still a believer in Napoli tonight though it’s more for his price at first base than anything. I’m not chasing too many of these Red Sox until the bats heat back up; they have scored just a shade over three runs a game over the last eight days. I’m not particularly chasing too many Orioles, either. Workman has pitched reasonably well this year and I’m not expecting either pitcher here tonight to get blown out of the game.
Mike Napoli (BOS-1B) – $5197
Steve Pearce (BAL-1B) – $5263
