When determining which way to go with my daily fantasy baseball lineups, there are a couple of things that I look at before even both deciding which players to roll with.
First things first, I always check the Vegas odds, specifically the over/under. One thing to keep in mind is that Vegas line are made with the intention of getting the public to bet both sides. An over/under of 8.5 is meant to entice as many people who think there will be 7 or 8 total runs as opposed to 9 or 10. With that said, the higher the over/under, the better the chances of a successful DFS lineup selection. It’s a fairly basic concept, but failing to employ it is a quick way to deplete bankrolls.
Secondly, the probable pitchers and the ballparks are factors in every decision that is made. It’s obvious that playing Troy Tulowitzki in AT&T Park against Madison Bumgarner isn’t an ideal situation. It’s not a linear process though. It’s not a mindset of “never start players facing Pitcher A, B or C.” Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is over 5.00; same goes for Justin Verlander’s ERA at Yankee Stadium over the last four years. This provides a value opportunity because some DFS players might shy away from big name pitchers.
With all this said, here my value plays for Draftstreet as well as which pitchers are favorable for today. There will be a lineup at the end of the article. As is always the case, be sure to check BaseballPress.com for up-to-the-minute lineup information and always double-check the weather.
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These lineups are made with 50/50 and heads-up games in mind.
Kansas City Royals (Chen) at Cleveland Indians (Kluber)
Bruce Chen has been shelled in his last two outings, both of them coming against Minnesota. I’m just going to avoid him for today. In fact, I’d rather just avoid the Royals altogether today, as I don’t see them doing very well against Corey Klubery. Note that the wind seems to be blowing in in Cleveland today, too.
Kluber would normally be one of my favorite starters for today, but he’s just getting hit around so hard game in and game out that I just can’t trust him in DFS just yet. There is some real upside with Kluber today, so he could make a fine GPP pitcher. I’d rather focus on Cleveland’s bats for DFS today, though.
Michael Brantley (OF) – $7038
Nick Swisher (1B) – $5794
Yan Gomes (C) – $4948
