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NFL Week 10 DFS Plays for DraftKings

cutler, nfl picks


It’s Monday night. The sounds of an unexpectedly entertaining Bills vs. Seattle game is drubbed out by my thoughts. I scribble my musings on an electric screen with the keyboard as the vessel. I discern the low-end quarterback landscape is a lifeless, unfruitful, infertile land. As I finger my way through the swath of high-end running backs in appreciable positions and lack of apparent current values, my aspirations of Julio Jones and Antonio Brown in cash waiver. Tight end is a trash can inferno save 2-3 palatable options that aren’t exactly home runs. Upon the epiphany I would be paying down at wide receiver, my inner monologue exclaims how every one in the mid to low range is elevated about $1000 from what I want to pay for them. While scouring for a solution to this quandary, I take a second glance at the quarterback position and gasp and throw up in my mouth at the same time. Pass me the Marlboros.

DFS Plays

($Price on DK) Player Name vs Opponent | Spread, Game Total

Cash Game Plays

($5,300)Jay Cutler @ TB | -1.5 TB, 45.5
Smokin Jay makes it all come together this week. At just $5,300 he presents the clear top value at quarterback and is in a matchup vs Tampa Bay’s funnel defense where he is guaranteed to attempt over 40 passes. If he can get 15-20 points, which I expect him to exceed in this matchup, then I can easily fit the next two plays below in and have an acceptable amount of salary in other places. He has 3 capable receiving options in Alshon Jeffery, Zach Miller, and Cameron Meredith which bolster his success and provide access to the ceiling Cutler has that we have seen in the past. The Bucs allow the 6th most passing yards per game and the 4th most fantasy points to the position.

($8,400)David Johnson @ SF | -13.5 AZ, 48.5
This spot is unfadeable. You Play Johnson in cash and probably every GPP LU as well. The 49ers allow the most fantasy points per game to RBs by 3.7 more than the next worse. They also allow the most rushing yards per game by 46.6 to the next worst team. They allow the 2nd most plays to be run to oppenents in the league. David Johnson averages the most fantasy points per game and the second most touches per game at 23.9.

($7,100)Melvin Gordon vs MIA | -4 SD, 48.5
From the depths of fantasy bustdom , living in a space void of a touchdown on 217 touches in the yesteryear, MG3 has emerged as a front runner for fantasy football’s coveted overall number one running back in raw points on 11 touchdowns through 9 games. His incredible usage in the red zone tethers his value to a high percentage of the touchdown market share to a team quarterbacked by a star In Philip Rivers, who typically is involved in shootouts due to the porous defense of their team. Gordon faces a matchup that is less threatening than the team he thrashed for over 250 yards from scrimmage in Miami, who allows the 3rd most rush yards per game in the league. Lock in Gordon as your other cash RB, after David Johnson, and then think about the rest of your lineup.

($6,600)Alshon Jeffery @ TB | -1.5 TB, 45.5
While Brian Hoyer favored Cam Meredith over Alshon, Cutler and Jefferys connection is well known and he will continually force the ball his way. Jeffery’s price has dropped too far, to $6600, for the WR1 of a team that projects to meet his target ceiling in a shootout vs a funnel defense. Having not exceeded the 20 fantasy point mark yet this year, look for Alshon to change that this week.

($3,600)Zach Miller @ TB | -1.5 TB, 45.5
We enter one of those weird spaces we come upon surprisingly often where multiple pieces of an offense are under priced due to recent performance and are now in a prodigous matchup where all will likely exceed their price tags handily. That, or I have an affinity for bad teams. Miller is averaging 8.25 targets per game over his last 4, since the exodus of Kevin White due to a spiral fracture in his fibula, and should easily exceed his $3,600 price tag at a weak TE position this week.

GPP Plays

($5,700)Marcus Mariota vs GB | -2.5 GB, 49.5
I have been burned by Marcus Mariota, but he is far too cheap for the upside he provides as he has shown the ability to put up 30 fantasy points games, doing so twice this season already and scoring 28.8 as well. The matchup is pretty good vs the Packer unit allowing the 9th most fantasy points to the position and presents the typical funnel defense, forcing more pass attempts, due to GB allowing the least amount of rushing yards per game in the league.

($7,000)Jay Ajayi @ SD | -4 SD, 48.5
As i look at the spelling of the his last name and how it is pronounced, certain lapses in thought process are noted and pushed aside. On any other week, Ajayi in this situation, after what he has done recently, would be the chalk, but he won’t be. There are better running backs in better situations in better offenses vs worse teams this week, and Ajayi’s price has risen up to $7000. Look to capture the last week of low ownership for a guy who hasn’t had less than 26 touches in the last 3 games in a decent spot vs the San Diego Chargers.

($9,000)Mike Evans vs CHI | -1.5 TB, 45.5
Evans is unfortunately currently in the concussion protocol after suffering a hit that forced him from the game in the 4th quarter, but this lemon may be lemonade in disguise. Evans was spotted running routes Tuesday and I am expecting/hoping he will get cleared by Sunday. This may lead to him being left off of a lot of lineups due to being questionable during the week and result in him being lower owned than he should be in a great spot. Evans manhandled the Falcons last week and is averaging an insane 12.6 targets per game and will face, at home, the defense allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to wide receivers.

($5,600)Travis Kelce @ CAR | -3 CAR, 44
The only guy on the top end in a good matchup is the zeus man himself, mini Gronk. Kelce has been the focus of the Chiefs passing game receiving 10 and 7 targets the last two weeks respectively, and he could have had more if not tossed out in the 4th quarter of his last bout. It was actually pretty hilarious, there were different colored pieces of cloth in various arrangements flying everywhere and I suggest you check it out. Carolina allows the 3rd most fantasy points to tight ends and present a funnel defense where passing is organically encouraged, which should lead to plenty of work for Kelce, especially with Jeremy Maclin looking like he won’t go.
Lines as of 11.8.16

Featured Image Credit: By Mike Morbeck (Flickr: Jay Cutler) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

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