Still only sixty minutes into the 2016 season, our Week 2 NFL DFS plays are forced to rely on a combination of last year’s statistics – and game plan – and conclusions drawn from Opening Week. Thankfully, most coaches maintained their respective style of play, allowing the games to proceed generally as expected.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 2 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Luke May is Sporfolio’s resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as its expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take: Unfortunately, the Dolphins and Patriots have little to offer DFS players on Sunday. Neither quarterback demands usage and neither team boasts a particularly strong run game – especially with Arian Foster already dinged up. A low-scoring battle between two division foes is not unlikely, and I would consider both defenses as potentially lowly-owned, sneaky plays. If either offense produces, it will be via Jarvis Landry and Julian Edelman, simply because of their high volume of targets.
Mario’s DFS Take: While I strongly believe that a trap is in the works – one that would benefit the Dolphins – the road to such a close game is less defined. The Dolphins have a few weapons in the form of Arian Foster, Jarvis Landry, and Kenny Stills, where Stills was the only Miami player to almost make an impact in Week 1. Almost. He dropped what would-have-been a sure touchdown pass. Perhaps Miami attempts a similar ‘home run’ play once or twice, but a receiver cannot be targeted under such an assumption. The ‘sleeper’ pick, therefore, would be Ryan Tannehill, as the Dolphins’ quarterback would have to play better than he did on Opening Day for his team to have any chance at surviving the trip to New England.
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take: The Colts’ Opening Day game played out exactly as expected: Andrew Luck threw the ball 47 times while the run game was basically non-existent. This trend may continue, but I am less confident in Luck’s potential performance going against the formidable Denver defense. The Colts’ offensive line is not great, and they will have their collective hands full against Von Miller and the Broncos. With that, I am tempering my expectations for Luck. The Broncos’ offense now runs through C.J. Anderson, and he remains in line for a significant amount of touches with Trevor Siemian under center – including contributing in the passing game. Until the Broncos’ aerial attack gets solidified, however, I will be staying away from Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.
Mario’s DFS Take: The Indianapolis Colts found their rhythm in the second half on Opening Day and were completely unstoppable thereafter. Indianapolis will be facing a far better defensive unit on Sunday when traveling to Denver, but the Colts are led by one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league. His skill position teammates are not worth targeting, but Andrew Luck should be completely under-owned in most formats. Denver might actually have to call upon its passing game to keep pace with Indianapolis’ offense, so Demaryius Thomas might be another value play from this AFC matchup – assuming he is healthy.
Featured Image Credit: Keith Allison derivative: Diddykong1130 (Ryan Tannehill) [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons