When I construct my fantasy lineups, throughout the DFS sports, two common things end up being my baseline for the path my roster takes. The top value plays and the highest ceiling superstar studs. In this article, I will attempt to attack these two prevalent fantasy focus points in NBA DFS.
I like to see how the match up went last time and try to delve a little deeper and figure out what has changed since then and the effects on the game script. I will attempt to provide thoughts on the most convoluted situations, particularly those with moving pieces.
Note: Superior value may arise later in the day with injury news, as well as shifting the best high end options, as it commonly does, but as of being written, these are my favorite plays.
AWAY @ HOME – Over/Under | Line
DET @ ORL – 209 | ORL -2
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 2 games 24.1 Fpts in 34 Mins
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game, 31.3 Fpts in 33.5 Mins
Tobias Harris was traded during the season from the Orlando Magic to the Detroit Pistons. You can bet he will be coming into the game with extra motivation and take a few extra shots.
CLE @ IND – 201 | IND -1.5
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 45.5 fpts in 38.5
LeBron has been picking up his production with us nearing the playoffs here, averaging 53 Fpts in 36 Mins over his last 5.
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 40.6 Fpts in 38.1 Mins
I am not on PG13 tonight, but he is a viable GPP play.
BKN @ WAS – 208 WAS -14.5
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game, 49.3 Fpts in 34.2 Mins
You have to be concerned with the blowout, with the Nets offense likely being driven by Shane Larkin and Thomas Robinson, but the matchup is amazing. If somehow the Nets keep it close, Wall will fight till the end, with the Wiz still vying for a playoff spot.
Robinson is an elite play in all formats, even at $6K, but can be faded. With the role he will have with Thad and Brolo out for the season, he could easily put up a 50 burger, which would far outperform his price tag.
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game, 19 Fpts in 35.3 Mins
Bojan is the definition of a low floor, high ceiling play. He will be the leader of the offense if he chooses and may shoot 30 times today. He also may play 20 minutes. Incredible GPP play.
NO @ BOS – 208.5 | BOS -14
Frazier is my preferred value guy in this game today. He will likely play in a blowout and has showed upside of late, which has been boosted by his starting role.
He keeps getting it done, averaging 33.3 Fpts over his last 3 in 33.6 Mins. He is underpriced with his role at $5K, but this is not a favorable matchup vs him.
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game, 24.3 Fpts in 19.3 Mins
Alexis Ajinca is as volatile a player as they come. He can get into foul trouble, and he can just be a pedestrian on the highway at times. I will likely fade him, but he is worth a mention.
Evan Turner is out
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game, 23.7 Fpts in 34.9 Mins
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game, 21.6 Fpts in 28.6 Mins
CHA @ NY – 197 | CHA -4.5
($3.7K)Derrick Williams is a viable punt play, starting for Kristaps
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 16.9 Fpts in 14.7 Mins
He is one of the only value guys today I feel decent about that is almost min priced. He also has a great matchup, but is very risky, with upside.
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 7.2 Fpts in 13.6 Mins
HOU @ DAL – 207.5 | HOU -1.5
Deron WIlliams remains out
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 52.2 Fpts in 37.8 Mins
With a few days off, hopefully Harden got well rested and is prepared for the stretch run, with the playoffs nearing. He is a near must play with his recent usage and
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 2 games, 17.1 Fpts in 17.7 Mins
No one is going to want to roster Barea at this price. He is running the offense and has been playing like a beast. I will happily roster him near $6K with his current role.
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 26.8 Fpts in 34 Mins
OKC @ POR – 219.5 | POR -1.5
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 49.5 Fpts in 31.2 Mins
Russel Westbrook is in a dream spot. He plays in the game with the highest over/under, vs one of the weakest starting PG defenders, where the game should stay close.
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 37 Fpts in 31.8 Mins
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 36.1 Fpts in 33.2 Mins
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 32.1 Mins in 33.8 Mins
LAC @ LAK – 207 | LAC -12.5
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 19.8 Fpts in 32.2 Mins
Clarkson let down last night
Just Give Me the Damn Plays
Featured Image Credit: By Chris Green (Chrisg21090 at en.wikipedia) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons