When I construct my fantasy lineups, throughout the DFS sports, two common things end up being my baseline for the path my roster takes. The top value plays and the highest ceiling superstar studs. In this article, I will attempt to attack these two prevalent fantasy focus points in NBA DFS.
I will list the players match up vs position for the last week because that is the most applicable to me, with the enormous amount of turnover in players and rotations from week to week in the NBA. For shooting guards and small forwards I list the DvP as SG,SF because there is a lot of defensive switches on the wings and the teams do not always match up SG vs SG and SF vs SF. For power forwards and centers I list the DvP PF,C so I get a general sense of how difficult a test the opponents front court is as a whole. I actually will use the PF,C DvP to help me for point guard selection as well to see how driving to the hoop will go for the PG, but I will not be listing those DvP’s under each point guard’s section.
After that I like to see how the match up went last time and try to delve a little deeper and figure out what has changed since then and the effects on the game script. I will attempt to provide thoughts on the most convoluted situations, particularly those with moving pieces.
Note: Superior value may arise later in the day with injury news, as well as shifting the best high end options, as it commonly does, but as of being written, these are my favorite plays.
The largest tournaments are always on the main slate, so those are the games I will address.
AWAY @ HOME – Over/Under | Line
MEM @ ORL – 205 | ORL -4.5
UTA @ PHO – 193.5 | UTA -8.5
Derrick Favors is questionable
Update: Jon Leuer (ankle) listed as doubtful for Sunday
Value:
($4K)Trey Lyles
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 13.7 Fpts in 16.3 Mins
If Favors doesn’t go, Lyles will be the top value play on the board.
($5.3K)Rodney Hood
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 24.1 Fpts in 33.1 Mins
($4.7K)Tyson Chandler
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 13.1 Fpts in 22 Mins
He has played 35+ mins in last two games and with Favors questionable, and Gobert’s defense down recently, I actually see my self looking at Chandler. Here’s my case. If he plays 35 minutes, he’s going to get 10 rebounds at least, and he will fall into 10 real life points. That puts you at a 22 fantasy point floor with a ceiling for 40 fpts. He will be really low owned due to the matchup as well, but at the price tag, there is not much risk.
Ceiling:
($6.9K)Gordon Hayward
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 2 games, 38.2 Fpts in 37.2 Mins
CHI @ MLW – 203 | MLW -2.5
Derrick Rose and Taj Gibson listed as doubtful for Sunday
Ceiling:
($7.8K)Jimmy Butler
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 2 games, 48 Fpts in 40 Mins
Jimmy will continue to dominate the usage in the Bull offense sans Rose, and he showed what he can do with it last game with 73.4 Fpts. With Rose unlikely to play, lock him in and move on. He is too cheap.
($7.2K)Khris Middleton
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 36.2 Fpts in 40.5 Mins
($9.4K)Giannis Antetokounpo
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 43.3 Fpts in 34.8 Mins
Point Giannis is back. He showed his upside once again last game with 53.7 Fpts and hopefully is back to controlling the offense the whole game. I am going to assume he will and that puts him squarely near the top of board of ceiling plays.
IND @ NY – 195.5 | IND -4
Ceiling:
($9.2K)Paul George
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game 44.4 Fpts in 36.5 Mins
PG13 gets up for matchups with stars, and he faces off with Carmelo Anthony, who he fared well against recently. That said, Paul George has a high bust rate at his high price tag.
Jose Calderon is doubtful
Value:
($3.6K)Jerian Grant
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: didn’t play
Grant played 28.8 minutes and scored 23.6 Fpts in his first start for Calderon, who is doubtful. If he can replicate that, he will smash his price tag’s value, but he goes from one of the top 3 favorable point guard matchups to a bottom 5 matchup.
POR @ GS – 225 | GS -12
Ceiling:
($10.2K)Steph Curry
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 43.9 Fpts in 28.2 Mins
Curry won’t forget the L he took to Dame and crew earlier this season, nor the one two nights ago. You can bet the baby faced assassin will be bringing s fully loaded clip.
($8.8K)Draymond Green
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 40 Fpts in 32.3 Mins
($7.1K)Klay Thompson
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 40.9 Fpts in 30.8 Mins
The new rotation and the FGA in this top matchup makes Klay a near must play for today.
($8K)Damian Lillard
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 55.3 Fpts in 33.1 Mins
I think Damian Lillard will be one of the highest owned players tonight, with his price dropping and previous success in this matchup, but you won’t find him on a roster of mine tonight. Lillard is tired and shooting poorly of late.
BOS @ LAK – 209.5 | BOS -9
Ceiling:
($7.7K)Isaiah Thomas
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game, 34.1 Fpts in 34.9 Mins
Pgs vs the Lakers. Book it. Should IT2 try, he will crush value.
($5.8K)Avery Bradley
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game, 22.3 Fpts in 35.4 Mins
($5.9K)Jae Crowder
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game, 29.5 Fpts in 36.4 Mins
Just Give Me the Damn Plays
Top Ceiling:
Steph Curry
Giannis Antetokounpo
Jimmy Butler
Top Value:
Trey Lyles(If Favors is Out)
Tyson Chandler
Jerian Grant
Lines as of 10 AM
