When I construct my fantasy lineups, throughout the DFS sports, two common things end up being my baseline for the path my roster takes. The top value plays and the highest ceiling superstar studs. In this article, I will attempt to attack these two prevalent fantasy focus points in NBA DFS.
I will list the players match up vs position for the last week because that is the most applicable to me, with the enormous amount of turnover in players and rotations from week to week in the NBA. For shooting guards and small forwards I list the DvP as SG,SF because there is a lot of defensive switches on the wings and the teams do not always match up SG vs SG and SF vs SF. For power forwards and centers I list the DvP PF,C so I get a general sense of how difficult a test the opponents front court is as a whole. I actually will use the PF,C DvP to help me for point guard selection as well to see how driving to the hoop will go for the PG, but I will not be listing those DvP’s under each point guard’s section.
After that I like to see how the match up went last time and try to delve a little deeper and figure out what has changed since then and the effects on the game script. I will attempt to provide thoughts on the most convoluted situations, particularly those with moving pieces.
Note: Superior value may arise later in the day with injury news, as well as shifting the best high end options, as it commonly does, but as of being written, typically before 9 AM, these are my favorite plays.
DEN @ LAL – 209 | LAC -8
This game is not on the main Fan Duel slate so I am going to skip it.
HOU @ IND – 210.5 | IND -2
Ceiling:
($11K)James Harden (questionable with an illness, but I expect to play) Update: He is not on the injury report Sunday Morning
DvP Last Week vs Opp.: 1, 24
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game 42.3 Fpts in 42.6 Mins
Harden is doing everything and playing minutes in the 40s. He is a hard fade right now, especially in a high total low spread game vs another star.
($8.7K)Paul George
DvP Last Week vs Opp.: 4, 29
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game 47.2 Fpts in 40.5 Mins
Paul George certainly has immense upside, but is dealing with a sore leg and is on a back to back and I never seem to get him right.
($6.9K)Dwight Howard
DvP Last Week vs Opp.: 1, 10
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game 46.9 Fpts in 42.7 Mins
Dwight is super cheap right now, has got 35 minutes or more in 3 of his last 4, and dominated this matchup earlier this season. That said, he has seemed disinterested and disengaged of late. Great GPP play. He will be low owned.
Value:
($5.7K)Myles Turner
DvP Last Week vs Opp.: 23,22
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game 9.9 Fpts in 12.8 Mins
I called Myles Turner on his birthday game and today feels almost as good. The spot is amazing and should he get 30-35 minutes he can easily crush his value. Pfs vs Houston is almost as good as Pgs vs the Lakers. He is way under priced for his upside in a pace up game.
DAL @ SAC – 217 | SAC -1
Ceiling:
($7.7K)Rajon Rondo
DvP Last Week vs Opp.: 29
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 37.6 Fpts in 33.7 Mins
There is a lot of upside on this price and he is sure to be low owned with all the great high end and low end PG options today.
($10.9K)DeMarcus Cousins
DvP Last Week vs Opp.: 29, 25
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games 54.4 Fpts in 41 Mins
It all sets up beautifully for Boogie today, making him sure to be the highest owned guy on the slate, but I wouldn’t have a problem saving a ton of money and dropping down to Dwight or Gortat.
Value:
($4.4K)Wes Matthews
DvP Last Week vs Opp.: 5, 6
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games 23.4 in 38.3 Mins
Wes Matthews will be ultra chalky today and is an easy fade to me. His propensity to bust is overwhelming and I could totatlly see him disappointing here.
Deron Williams has been ruled out for this game opening some amazing chalk value in ($4K)J.J. Barea and ($4.1K)Ray Felton. I would suggest locking both in at your PG spots and loading up elseware because of the upside these guys provide playing over 30 minutes at such cheap prices. The chance they don’t at least get you 40 and reach value together is extremely low and they could go for 70 combined.
WAS @ LAK – 213.5 | WAS -7.5
Ceiling:
($9.8K)John Wall
DvP Last Week vs Opp.: 28
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game 57.9 Fpts in 36.3 Mins
Point gods vs the Lakers. You know, and if you don’t you should.
($6.4K)Marcin Gortat
DvP Last Week vs Opp.: 10, 24
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game 34.5 Fpts in 37.2 Mins
Gortat had success earlier this season vs the Lakers and is a great play at his price. He may be high owned to having a big game on Friday night.
Value:
($5.5K)Bradley Beal
DvP Last Week vs Opp.: 30, 10
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game 23.4 Fpts in 37.7 Mins
Beal has a lot of upside and a good matchup, but there are a lot of highend SG plays I love today, so I doubt I will drop down to him.
D’Angelo Russell (ankle) is doubtful to play against the Wizards on Sunday.
($5.1K)Lou Williams
DvP Last Week vs Opp.: 3, 12
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game 32.4 Fpts in 32.6 Mins
($5.5K)Jordan Clarkson
DvP Last Week vs Opp.: 3, 12
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game 28.3 Fpts in 36 Mins
($3.6K)Marcelo Huertas
DvP Last Week vs Opp.: 24
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: didn’t play
The populace seems to be all in on Huertas with D’angelo Russell doubtful, but I am not sure he will draw the start. If he does, he will be a viable punt play, but certainly not a home run. I like Barea and Felton much, much more.
PHI @ GS – 225 | GS -21.5
Ceiling:
($10.8K)Stephen Curry
DvP Last Week vs Opp.: 26
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game 36 Fpts in 34.2 Mins
($8.4K)Draymond Green
DvP Last Week vs Opp.: 16, 6
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game 38.1 Fpts in 32.8 Mins
($7.3K)Klay Thompson
DvP Last Week vs Opp.: 11, 25
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game 33.9 Fpts in 32.9 Mins
Klay has taken 20 or more shots in 4 of his last 5 games and started to heat up vs the Mavericks. It’s a good idea to get Klay when he gets on this hot streak, and this may be the start.
Nerlens Noel has been ruled out for this game, creating much larger roles for the following guys.
($6.1K)Robert Covington
DvP Last Week vs Opp.: 16, 16
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game 35.1 Fpts in 35.8 Mins
With the 76ers so depleted Covington has been playing a lot of PF and it has shown in his rebound totals the last two games with 9 and 11 rebounds. He is also taking a ton of shots, 15 and 17 in his last two, and has succeeded in this matchup earlier in the season. I love Covington tonight.
Value:
($5.1K)Jerami Grant
DvP Last Week vs Opp.: 17, 23
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game 18.7 Fpts in 20 Mins
He played 17 minutes at center last night, which should certainly boost his fantasy production in at least the rebound category and he showed it with 33.9 Fpts in 31 Mins last night. Low floor, high ceiling play.
Just Give me the Damn Plays
Top Ceiling:
James Harden
DeMarcus Cousins
John Wall
Top Value:
J.J. Barea
Matt Dulcan
Lines as of 9 AM
Featured image credit: By photo taken by flickr user ReneS (flickr) [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
